Society for the Eradiction of Demon Sheep from Our Political Discourse
Former Massachusetts State Treasurer John Malone (R) is seriously considering a bid to unseat Democrat Bill Delahunt in the state’s Tenth Congressional District. The district is the most Republican friendly of them all. It covers all of Cape Cod and then runs up the coast to Quincy. It has a Cook Partisan Voting ranking of D +5.
Check our Twitter feed at the top of the page for live updates on the returns as they come in.
The dynamics for the GOP in 2010 just keep getting better with signs of seats nobody has even paid attention to showing evidence of being in play.
Arkansas – I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear a retirement announcement coming from Blanche Lincoln in the weeks ahead. She has already been showing a great degree of vulnerability, polling even or slightly behind much lesser known Republican challengers. Things have gotten incredibly worse for her now though, with the entrance of Congressman John Boozman. If the election were held today, he would obliterate her 54% to 35%! It’s not just Boozman, however. Even the other potential Republican candidates are now leading her by double digits. Gilbert Baker leaders her by 19 points, Kim Hedren leads by 16 points, Curtis Coleman leads by 16 points and Tom Cox by 14. This is like the Santorum-Casey race of Pennsylvania in 2006. Lincoln is not going to recover from this. This race now inarguably favors the Republicans.
Delaware – With Biden Jr declining to run for dad’s Senate seat, the Democrats have practically conceded this race already to Mike Castle. At this point, New Castle County Executive Chris Coons isn’t even competitive, trailing Castle by 29 points.
Florida – Marco Rubio continues to soar ahead of Charlie Crist. In the latest poll conducted by Fabrizio and Lee, Rubio now leads Crist in the Republican primary by 14 points. He is also in good shape for the general election against Kendrick Meek (D) and even wins if Crist were to pursue an independent candidacy, proving once again that traditional American small government principles prevail.
Michigan – The Republicans are well poised to pick up the Governor’s mansion in Michigan this year. For a reliably blue state in state wide elections, the Democrats have done an awful recruiting job. As of now, Republican Attorney General Mike Cox leads Democrat Denise Ilitch (Granholm the sequel) by 18 points.
New York – New York has had its ups and downs and some surprises. Appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is showing to be an incredibly weak candidate and polling indicates that she would lose the election this year to a top tier Republican like former Governor George Pataki, but as I wrote the other day, the New York GOP has really been dropping the ball on this race. What’s even more shocking though, is that it’s not just Gillibrand who could be in for a fight. Both Senate seats in New York are up this year. Gillibrand is running to finish out the rest of Hillary Clinton’s term which ends in 2013. Senator Schmuck Schumer, however, is running for another six years and apparently New Yorkers aren’t as fond of him as they used to be. His job approval rating has dropped to 47% putting him under the 50% incumbent safety zone.
Pennsylvania – And now my favorite, favorite race. It seems as though Pennsylvanians have finally gotten sick of Arlen Specter. The latest poll shows Pat Toomey leading Specter 45% to 31% and doing even better against Congressman Joe Sestak, leading 41% to 19%.
Washington – Another race that nobody has really paid attention to may be another hidden opportunity for the Republicans. A poll commissioned by Moore Information showed that former Republican gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi would defeat Senator Patty Murray by two points in a general election match up. Rossi ran against Governor Christine Gregoire in 2004 and won the initial count and two of the subsequent recounts. On the third recount Gregoire won and then of course the Democrats didn’t want to do anymore recounts. They just happen to come across some “missing ballots” in King County no less. Rossi ran against Gregoire again in 2008 and lost to her 47% to 53%, which was not a bad showing in a Democrat leaning state in a year very favorable to Democrats. It’s hard to say if Rossi will want to take on the headaches of another statewide race. Consequently, Washington is not really that deep blue. The Democrats have just enough of an advantage there that they win most of their statewide races, but not by huge margins as evidenced in the Rossi-Gregoire races. In 1994 the Republicans won six Congressional seats in the state and it wasn’t that long ago that Republican Senator Slade Gorton represented the state. He lost reelection in 2000 to Maria Cantwell by only 2,229 votes.
The maps are getting redder.
And ask him to run for the US Senate in New York this year.
This is not 2004. He can beat the NY GOP establishment and Kristin Gillibrand.
For the first time since Al D’Amato got reelected to the U.S. Senate in 1992, Republicans have their best chance at sending another Republican to Washington, yet they’ve got nobody on deck. Rudy Giuliani has declined to run. Former Congresswoman Susan Molinari of Staten Island took a pass after some consideration and despite that yet another poll has come out showing former Governor George Pataki would defeat Kirsten Gillibrand, he hasn’t expressed any interest.
If I were Michael Steele I’d be hopping in my car, heading up to New York, and throwing out everybody at the NY GOP headquarters because this is yet another prime example of their extreme ineptitude. They screwed up NY-20. They massacred NY-23 and at this point haven’t recruited a candidate to run against a weak appointed Senator. Even if it’s a state senator who isn’t that well known at this point, that’s still acceptable. There is plenty of time left to tour the state, build up name recognition, and for Obama to piss off more of the public. Sadly, the New York Republican Party is making the Obama administration look competent.
In what is becoming a familiar refrain for Dems, Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) could be facing a tough re-election fight, according to a new poll released today by a GOP survey firm.
The poll, conducted by OR-based Moore Information (R), shows Murray trailing two-time GOV nominee Dino Rossi (R) in a hypothetical matchup. Rossi, Moore Information pollsters Bob Moore and Hans Kaiser note, is the state’s best-known GOPer, though he has not been mentioned as a potential candidate against Murray. Rossi has lost two close elections to Gov. Chris Gregiore (D); he notably declined to run in ‘06 against Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) to challenge a second time Gregoire in ‘08.
Moore Information surveyed 500 WA registered voters on Jan. 23 and 24, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.
General Election Matchup
Rossi 45%
Murray 43
Another allegedly untouchable Democrat, Russ Feingold, would be vulnerable for reelection this year if former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson were to run against him. According to a Rasmussen poll, Thompson would lead Feingold 47% to 43% and would lead among independents 53% to 36%.
The U.S. Senate today voted to increase the nation’s debt ceiling another $1.9 trillion to continue to pay for entitlement programs, war mongering, and other unconstitutional government spending that we can no longer afford. The vote went down by a straight party line vote of 60 to 40. This new debt increase amounts to $45,000 for every single American. New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg (R) summed up the situation nicely.
“It took 200 years to build the federal debt to a total of $1.9 trillion,” Sen. Judd Gregg, a Republican, said. “Now the majority wants to increase the current limit … by $1.9 trillion so that we can finance the government’s borrowing binge long enough to get us past the November 2010 elections.”
Why hasn’t Scott Brown been seated yet? Why is Paul Kirk still voting on behalf of Massachusetts? If Brown was there this would have failed.
DALLAS/CHICAGO, Jan 26 (Reuters) – U.S. women’s groups are urging television broadcaster CBS not to air an ad during next month’s Super Bowl football championship final because they say it has a strident anti-abortion rights message.
The plans to air the ad, sponsored by a conservative Christian group called Focus on the Family, could see the polarizing issue of abortion rights dropped squarely in the midst of National Football League’s premier event.
It would be the first time that Focus on the Family, a politically influential evangelical group founded by James Dobson, has bought air time during the Super Bowl — the ultimate prize of the advertising world with 30-second spots going for up to $3.2 million.
The Women’s Media Center and over 30 other liberal and women’s advocacy groups sent a letter to CBS, the TV network to air the Super Bowl on Feb. 7, saying: “… we urge you to immediately cancel this ad and refuse any other advertisement promoting Focus on the Family’s agenda.”
They haven’t even seen the ad, but somehow they know it’s a “a strident anti-abortion rights message.” My understanding is that the ad features Tim Tebow and his mother briefly telling her story about how she contracted amoebic dysentery while doing missionary work and that if she had aborted her pregnancy at the recommendation of her doctor, Tim Tebow would have never been born. He was the one she was carrying and it’s a message reminding women to strongly consider the choice they make. I haven’t heard anything eluding to Mrs. Tebow telling people that abortion should be illegal. It’s an ad expressing the love between a mother and her son. Gee, how awful! Frankly, I think we could use a lot more of that on TV these days. I guess we’ll see when it airs.
Does anyone wonder if Crist will end up bowing out of this race in the end?
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Former Florida legislator Marco Rubio has closed the gap in the race for the state’s Republican U.S. Senate nomination and is in a virtual dead heat with Gov. Charlie Crist, according to a poll released Tuesday.
Rubio, a lawyer who served as Speaker of the House, was once considered a long shot against Crist, who has widespread name recognition and a significant fundraising lead. But with Florida’s primary seven months away, Rubio was favored by 47 percent compared with 44 percent who preferred Crist — statistically a tie in the Quinnipiac University poll that has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
The random telephone survey, which included 673 GOP voters, was conducted Jan. 20-24.
I really hope Pence enters this race.
Indiana Rep. Mike Pence (R) leads Sen. Evan Bayh (D) by 3 points, according to a new Rasmussen poll. Pence, the third ranking Republican in the House, is considering a Senate bid but hasn’t indicated publicly which way he is leaning.
Bayh leads two other Republicans, ex-congressman John Hostettler and State Sen. Marlin Stutzman, but still polled below 50% — not a good sign for an incumbent.
Bayh 44 – Pence 47
Bayh 44 – Hostettler 41
Bayh 45 – Stutzman 33
Congressman John Boozman, Arkansas’ only Republican in its Congressional delegation is seriously entertaining the idea of entering the U.S. Senate race against Senator Blanche Lincoln. Multiple media outlets have stated that Boozman’s people have been calling the campaigns of the four Republicans already in the race to get a feel as to whether or not they would drop out if Boozman entered.
Polling of the race has shown Republican Gilbert Baker to be the strongest candidate at this point against Lincoln. He typically leads her by a few points and I’m thinking he won’t be pushed aside quite so easily. The other five candidates tend to run right around even with her, sometimes leading by a couple points or trailing by a couple of points, but the pattern is clear. Lincoln is in danger of losing her seat to any one of them. It will be interesting to see how Boozman polls against her and I’m sure someone will poll that match up in the coming days.
Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) who got swept into Congress in the Republican wave of 1994 and swept back out in the Democrat wave of 2006 has decided to go up against John McCain this year to grab the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate. McCain has been a long time target of many conservatives over his willingness to reach across the aisle and “sell out” according to some. His presidential campaign in 2008 was also a big disappointment and poorly ran, but despite that a Rasmussen poll released on January 20th showed McCain leading Hayworth in a potential primary match up 53% to 31%.
I imagine Hayworth’s decision to jump in the race was based on the result of Scott Brown winning the Senate race in Massachusetts. I don’t think this year is going to turn out to be a typical political year so I’m not going to rule out McCain having some potential vulnerability.
Congressman Marion Berry (D-AR-01) is going to announce his retirement tomorrow. It’s looking like next year by this time the Arkansas Congressional delegation will have shifted from three Democrats and one Republican to one Democrat and three Republicans, assuming Congressman Mike Ross (D) runs for reelection and wins.
Republican Rick Crawford had already entered the race against Berry a few months back. I imagine now that Berry has retired we will see other Republicans jump into the primary field.
The seat is currently held by Travis Childers, a Democrat, who secured his place in Congress partially by paying his campaign volunteers $100 a day to canvass through out North Mississippi.
At the present time, the Republican Party’s best hope for reclaiming Mississippi’s first district is Alan Nunnelee. Nunnelee’s campaign has currently raised over $420,000, and is formally being announced Monday in DeSoto County, with stops in Tupelo and Columbus planned for the same day.
Mike Huckabee will be campaigning for Nunnelee, immediately putting him in my dislike category.
In my opinion, the best potential candidate for Mississippi 1 is Angela McGlowan. McGlowan is a native of the Oxford area and has made several appearances on local radio on top of her contributions nationally on Fox News. She’s an Ole Miss graduate, CEO of a political strategy firm, and part of a rising trend of Conservative, Republican voting African Americans.
According to the Clarion Ledger, McGlowan will announce whether or not she will run in February. She met with the NRCC yesterday.
Her Wikipedia page has more details about her career and time within the GOP.
In comparison, Nunnelee went to State. He is currently a Mississippi State Senator, and hails from Tupelo. He’s followed in Roger Wicker’s foot steps so far in his career, having been selected to fill his state senate seat after Wicker moved on to the House in 1994.
As far as his viewpoints go, it’s safe enough to once again point out that Huckabee is campaigning for him.
Currently, there are no other serious GOP contenders in MS-1. Henry Ross, the former mayor of Eupora, has already spoken with the NRCC. However, no other seriously relevant steps have been taken.
(I’ll do my best to continue updating on MS-1 if there is any interest while I am here. I am currently going through the LSAT process and have no idea where my test scores will take me after May. I’m hoping to stay put, however.)
Toomey’s lead keeps getting larger and larger.
Republican Pat Toomey now leads incumbent Senator Arlen Specter 49% to 40% in Pennsylvania’s race for the U.S. Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters also finds Toomey with a 43% to 35% lead over Democratic challenger Joe Sestak.
Oh man, Mike Pence in the Senate? That would be beyond awesome.
Among the senators who could be endangered by a new wave of Republican entries are Evan Bayh (Indiana), Kirsten Gillibrand (New York), Patty Murray (Washington), and Russ Feingold (Wisconsin).
An early example is Indiana, where Republican Congressman Mike Pence is reportedly weighing a challenge to Evan Bayh. The Hoosier State gave Obama its electoral votes in 2008 by a razor-thin margin. If Democrats could lose a Senate seat in Massachusetts, which Obama carried with 62 percent, it is theoretically possible that Indiana could be in play come November.
It appears some of the more vulnerable Democrats in the House did receive the message Tuesday night.
WASHINGTON (AP) – Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Thursday that she lacks the votes to quickly move the Senate’s sweeping health overhaul bill through the House, a potentially devastating blow to President Barack Obama’s signature issue.
Pelosi, D-Calif., made the comment to reporters after House Democrats held a closed-door meeting at which participants vented frustration with the Senate’s massive version of the legislation.
Her concession meant there was little hope for a White House-backed plan to quickly push the Senate-approved health bill through the House, followed by a separate measure making changes sought by House members, such as easing the Senate’s tax on higher-cost health plans. Such an approach would be “problematic,” she said.
“In its present form without any changes I don’t think it’s possible to pass the Senate bill in the House,” Pelosi said, adding, “I don’t see the votes for it at this time.”
Not at all surprising, the Democrats didn’t learn a darn thing from Tuesday’s election. Guess what they have the gall to now be proposing.
WASHINGTON – Senate Democrats on Wednesday proposed allowing the federal government to borrow an additional $1.9 trillion to pay its bills, a record increase that would permit the national debt to reach $14.3 trillion.
The unpopular legislation is needed to allow the federal government to issue bonds to fund programs and prevent a first-time default on obligations. It promises to be a challenging debate for Democrats, who, as the party in power, hold the responsibility for passing the legislation.
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