If you spend any time around Washington insiders, it is abundantly clear that the Democrats #1 target for 2006 is Rick Santorum, but the D’s have a problem: finding a candidate of their own. The rumors have been floating for weeks that Bob Casey Jr (yes, the son of the former governor) would be the Democratic candidate. For Rick this would be an utter disaster, because Casey has already proven the ability to raise big $$ and he’s pro-life and socially conservative, which would undercut Rick’s already despondent base.

Patrick Ruffini, has some good reasons for Santorum to be hopeful against Casey though. Ruffini notes that Casey proved to be a terrible campaigner, who gave Pennsylvanians little reason to vote for him over then Mayor Rendell.

But good news is now breaking for Santorum, who so far has shown an incredible ineptitude at handling his own base, it appears as if Casey is not going to run. This would leave Barbera Hafer as the Democratic candidate, in a messy primary similar to the 2000 race, with possible other candidates Joe Hoeffel (Fmr Congressman and ‘02 D Senate nominee), Allyson Schwartz (Newly elected Congresswoman from the 13th, 2000 Senate primary candidate), and a darkhorse in Chris Heinz (related to you know who).

This pack of candidates would either be too far left for Pennsylvlania (Hoeffel, Schwartz), too incompetent (Hafer), or too green (Heinz) to pose much of a threat to Santorum. So the ‘06 Senate election may be determined in the next few weeks, if Casey jumps in then Rick is in big trouble, but if he stays out look for him to raise more than enough to run over anyone who runs against him.