This past weekend I spent in Austin, and something of which I had burried in the back of my mind during the summer came roaring back into my conscience: the Republican “permanent majority” may be much shallower than believed, because the coalition of the Right is shattering thanks to the aggresive foreign policy of the Bush administration.

I stumbled across this article in the American Conservative which reminded me of the arguments I heard struck up innumerous times at the conference I was at this weekend. With the spectre of communism gone there is nothing left to hold the libertarians (and principled small government conservatives like myself) in with the Republican Party.

This threat is real and should not be ignored by the party elite. As Alex pointed out, just consider how many neo-cons there are in heartland USA versus how many small government conservatives there are. The neo-con movement is largely an intellectual one with little if any grassroots might, whereas there is might and anger simmering in the traditional paleo-con, libertarian, Burke conservatives. It seems that the Bush administration used an effort of getting the Religious Right (not to be confused with traditionalist conservatives) and the Neo-Cons to become their alliance of power within the GOP. Sadly, it is this that risks to rip assunder the GOP equation.

There is no doubt that the war on terror needs to be fought, but this senseless talk of more invasions, continued ignorance of potential problems within the Patriot Act, and continued affronts to good governmental principle and there could erupt a major split within the GOP. Now if Bush comes through with severe budget cuts, Social Security reform (without the tax hikes) and ceases talking about invading every other country in the Middle East, then the GOP probably has bright days ahead…