Must read National Review article here.
Some excerpts:
Phillip Longman’s new book, The Empty Cradle, features a striking comparison between fertility rates in Utah and Vermont. According to Longman, in Utah, where 69 percent of residents are Mormon, 90 children are born every year for every 1,000 women of child-bearing age. Longman pointedly contrasts this to Vermont, “the only state to send a socialist to congress, and the first to embrace gay unions,” which produces only 49 children per 1,000 women of child bearing age. But Riley’s study makes me wonder how long the discrepancy will be this large, and how many states other than Utah it will apply to. Maybe Longman’s comparison is a bit misleading, since Mormons seem to stress early marriage more intensely than other religious groups. Again, I think the religious red states will continue to out-reproduce our secular cities. But it could well be that the degree of difference — and with it, America’s overall fertility rate — is destined to fall.
So long as women continue to pursue graduate education and serious careers in large numbers, the fertility rate will go down. From the third world to the United States, nothing correlates more closely with reduced fertility than greater education for women. And worldwide, the trend toward more education for women and falling fertility rates cuts across all cultures and religions. The red states may slow this trend, but in the absence of a demographically induced economic crisis (all too possible), the direction of fertility seems to be downward. Even so, if falling fertility precipitates the sort of economic-cultural crisis I discuss in “Demography and the Culture Wars,” traditional religious ideas about marriage and family will still be around — and could easily enough be revived.