Who’s Next?
Written by Mike on February 14th, 2005Let’s go ahead and lay down predictions while there is still time to do so. Which country do we engage militarily next? Iran? North Korea? Or my dark horse candidate, Syria? The president has played this pretty close to the vest, but I don’t think you’ll see any U.N sessions this time to warn them that we are on the way. Congress will be called to an emergency session and then boom. I still maintain that Syria is next, despite the indications that Iran is being mapped out for air strikes or an invasion. In addition the pressure on North Korea is steadily mounting, if you can stomach it, here is the New York Times reporting. The noose is tightening on North Korea and many think that this means there won’t be any conflict, just a slow painful strangulation of the regime, but if you think the North Korean’s are going to respond any differently than the Japanese did in the early 40s to the United States efforts to similarly choke it of resources and vital supplies then you need to take a step back and re-think your ideas. Many elites in the North want the current way of things to continue, there are even reports circulating that Kim’s son though only 23 years old has been named a successor to him, indicating a potential early retirement or a well planned coup that we are only seeing the tip of.
We live in exciting times, all three of these regimes will not get to see the 2008 election coverage, and we get to watch it all happen.
14
AM
If you attack Iran now you could prompt a retaliatory response on Iraq would could spark a war between the former enemies. N Korea, is far to unstable. Kim Hong Il is crazy enough to attack Japan if we strike. Look for stict diplomacy in N Korea. That leave Syria as the little guy in the equation. Syria is the last bastion of state sponsored terrorism in the Middle East. They are of little resources and we could overun them easily.
But I believe the administration will make a political calculation and not attack anyone for the remainder of the term. The support for the current war is tenous and can not support a third arena.
14
AM
I don’t think we are going to “invade” Iran or North Korea, but that doesn’t preclude military engagement either. Iran is already being scouted. An air strike of some kind is going to happen within 6 months. As for Iraq and Iran fighting, don’t count on the Shiites now running Iraq to have much of a fight with their brethren across the border. The Iranians won’t attack Iraq, they want to live a little longer.
North Korea is going to be starved to death. I look for them to make a move when they see that there is no hope. They will try and blackmail the South or Japan into giving them food aid or something along those lines. How we respond is critical.
7
AM
Thank you, friends, for your sharing your ideas