A silver lining?
Written by Jack O'Reilly on May 25th, 2005I agree with Gary that the “deal” could work out advantageously for us in the big picture, but let’s look at the bad first.
Looking into my crystal ball, I can see the Dems filibustering a Supreme Court nominee. DeWine and Graham will argue that the filibustering of a Supreme Court nominee would abrogate the deal and be willing to go nuclear, but this would leave the Democrats seeming “moderate” by having 5 RINOs of the band of weasels sticking together.
I do not forsee the Dems filibustering Bush’s first Supreme Court nominee. Remember, replacing Rehnquist with a conservative will merely keep the status quo balance on the Supreme Court. The Dems will probably raise hell like they’re doing for the Bolton confirmation battle, but they will save the filibuster for his second nominee if Bush is nearing lame duckhood and without a doubt on a possible third that would result in a conservative majority.
But here is the possible silver lining. Given that the Democrats will allow a vote on Bill Pryor, Priscilla Owen, and Janice Rogers Brown for federal court, wouldn’t they be obligated to do the same when nominated for the Supreme Court? Or as Gary noted, at least have to concede Bush’s less “extreme” nominees. Granted, the stakes would be raised, I think they would have to allow it as part of good faith in the deal. Pryor may have been too outspoken on abortion, and Owen and Rogers Brown have only made rulings on parental consent laws (please correct me if I’m wrong).
So, what I would like to see then is a conservative Hispanic nominated first, Owen second and Janice Rogers Brown to clinch it. Yeah, I don’t like playing race and gender cards, but we haven’t gotten a conservative without it in the post-Roe world.
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You’re exactly right, John. Rehnquist will likely step down in June. Then over the summer and into the fall will be the process of nomination and confirmation hearings and probably a vote sometime in October. If/When another justice (perhaps O’Connor) steps down, my guess it’ll be after the midterms of 06 and the race to the nomination of both parties will be underway. The new nominee will become an issue in both the primaries. The Republican senators running will have to prove that they will invoke the nuclear option, if necessary and will vote for the nominee on the up-or-down vote. The Democratic senators running will try to win the nomination to see who is the biggest obstructionist. This will be the showdowns of showdowns both in the Senate and for the country for the 2008 election.
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I think more Senators than just DeWine and Graham will be onboard for the nuclear option should the Democrats fillabuster one of the remaining 4 Bush nominees. Susan Collins has said she will vote to ban judicial fillabusters if the liberal Democrats in the Senate pull this insane stunt again. I think we can count on John McCain, Ben Nelson and Mark Pryor to do the same, given that they will have been totally humiliated in the event of yet another Democratic fillabuster. We would have a chance at getting 60 votes to get cloture, and, should that fail, we could most definitely pass the Bobby Byrd option to ban judicial fillabusters. Who really cares, at this point, if the Democrats look more moderate- we have to care more about getting strict constructionist judges on the courts.
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With Nelson up in 06, I don’t know how he can vote against a pro-life SCOTUS nominee.
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