A great piece from the Heritage Foundation demonstrates the outstanding economic effects of Bush’s 2003 tax cut. I emphasize “2003 tax cut,” because, as the article shows, Bush’s 2001 cuts were not nearly as successful. The reason brings us back to the great debate between Keynes and Friedman. In the 2001 tax cuts, Bush actually adopted the Keynesian view of the business cycle. He created tax rebates for all American households and special, additional tax credits for households with children. The 2001 bill contained marginal rate reductions, but they weren’t scheduled to take effect until 2006. These “rebates” and “credits” were all designed to increase the purchasing power of the American consumer. In accordance with the Keynesian school, Bush was looking to inject more money into the economy, so as to increase consumer spending and, thus, shift aggregate demand upward. By increasing aggregare demand, these tax cuts would renew economic growth in America. This bill had modest success. It wasn’t until 2003, when Bush pushed tax legislation
based on supply-side principles (Milton Friedman school) that the economy “took off” in unprecedented fashion. The 2003 bill accelerated the marginal rate reductions, thus giving workers and producers an incentive to work longer, harder and more productive hours. The result was historic economic growth and record unemployment numbers. Bush got it right with supply-side economics. As Heritage outlines:
-Economic growth since the 2003 tax cut has averaged nearly 4.4 percent on a yearly basis, compared to just 1.9 percent in the period following the 2001 tax cut.[1]
- Net job creation since the 2003 tax cut has averaged more than 150,000 per month, compared to declining job numbers in the period after the 2001 tax cut.[2]
-Tax revenues have grown by an average of more than 6 percent annually since the 2003 tax cut, compared to falling tax collections after the 2001 tax cut.
The most important point here is the increase in government revenues. If you increase the tax base, and get more people working, as Bush’s supply-side cuts (like President Reagan’s) did, you get more government revenue. To be sure, a sound budget, with very limited government spending is necessary. But I am always weary of the “budget hawks” who bemoan President Bush’s supposed rejection of fiscal conservatism: the true mark of a fiscal conservative is a pro-growth, supply-side tax policy, and Bush has surely succeeded here. Now that he has toned down the spending a bit (Bush’s “excessive spending” was also vastly overstated by the zealous fiscal hawks), he is on pace to make history again with an even better and more productive economy. Let’s just see if the media reports on all of the economic progress. God knows they have yet to do it.