Younghusband at Coming Anarchy has an excellent summation of an ongoing debate within foreign policy circles and the Pentagon of how to deal with a “rising China”. The “let China integrate itself with us economically and everything will be fine” crowd now appears to have the formidable Dr. Kissinger on its side. And that is fine, but that doesn’t change the reality of human nature, history and China.

What I find odd about all of this is the insistence on the part of some that we not prepare as if we might enter into a conflict with China. Why does that this preparation bother them so much? No one is seriously advocating war as a containment strategy for China, but why emasculate our deterrent power to the point that war is no longer an option? The best way to prevent conflict in the Far East is to make it so costly to those who are involved that the mere thought of it terrifies them it seeking other courses of action.

The US military maintains order within selected spheres of economic influence, the Far and Middle East being examples of these spheres and Africa being an example of what happens when that protection is not extended to a certain geographic zone. If the US had the equivalent ability of the EU or Canada to project its military might in the Far East then China, Japan, and Korea would “police” themselves and you can be assured that it would get very ugly, very fast.

Pretend for a moment that the US withdrew from its role in the Far East. China would bring Taiwan to heel. North Korea would finish what it started 50 years ago. Japan and China would inevitably clash. Vietnam would invade Laos and Cambodia. Burma and Thailand would clash as they have done for centuries. I know that some realists don’t care about Taiwan or South Korea, but let me ask you, is the above scenario a good environment for trade? No level of economic symbiosis will prevent conflict that is fueled by nationalism. I think WWI and WWII would have proven that in spades. And the Far East is a very, very nationalistic place.

Remember if you seek peace, prepare for war.