It’s official: Bob McDonnell is the Attorney General-elect of Virginia. McDonnell did a great job with his campaign. That the AG race was the tightest in Virginia is not an argument against him, but a compliment to the fact that the Democrats realized Virginia is still red and ran one of their most conservative State Senators against McDonnell. McDonnell even won applause from Not Larry Sabato (aka Ben Tribbett, aka Leslie Byrne fan) who looked beyond partisanship to see a very well run campaign.

Now ‘09 becomes significantly more interesting, as it looks like there could be a three way primary between McDonnell, Lieutenant Governer-elect Bill Bolling, and former Governer Jim Gilmore.

The Democrats clearly believe 2006 is their best chance in a long time to retake either chamber of Congress. We see them actively recruiting Iraq War veterans as candidates and actually trying to come up with a unified message (ala the Contract With America) under the leadership of DCCC Chairman Rep. Rahm Emmanuel. Yet as we all know, the dynamics of congressional races (the dreaded incumbency system) make a change in power very improbable even when the public is skeptical of the majority party. Everyone hates congress and loves their congressman. It takes special circumstances (an unpopular incumbent like a Torricelli or perhaps a Santorum) or a retirement to force a change, which is why so much of the handicapping for next year depends on potential retirements.

Spectators got handed one Thanksgiving week with the announcement of Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-Ariz.) that he would be retiring after 22 years in office. Rep. Kolbe has been a leading proponent of Social Security reform over the years and a friend to College Republicans. However, his positions on abortion and immigration reform (among other things) have run counter to the conservative movement at large. Kolbe is very popular in his own district and survived a conservative primary challenge last year by 14 point margin to go on to win reelection by 60% of the vote. The 8th district of Arizona is widely considered a swing district (President Bush only carried the 8th with 53%) which is one reason why it was Rob Portman and not Kolbe that President Bush nominated to be U.S. Trade Representative this year.

Other variables: Registered Republicans make up a plurality in the 8th, with just under 40%. Registered Democrats constitute 35% of the electorate and 25% are registered independents. The independents will play less of a swing role in the outcome than they might have had the seat been open in 2004 (a presidential election year). Off-year elections tend to be base elections. Opposition to incumbent Governor Janet Napolitano (who is up for reelection in 2006) will likely determine how important the independent vote will be. If she faces only token Republican opposition, expect the independents to stay home.

More than 15% of 8th District voters are Hispanic.

20% of the 8th District electorate is considered rural. The 8th is also home to two military installations and is home to the ninth largest percentage of military retirees in the country.

Who will seize the GOP banner next year? Randy Graf, Kolbe’s challenger from last year, is already running again and as before has the support of Rep. Tom Tancredo’s Team America PAC. But Graf is running largely as a single issue candidate (against amnesty for illegal aliens) and has given indications he may not be so conservative in other areas. In a statement released August 11, Graf pledged to seek a seat on the Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska)’s House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee (Young is porker-in-chief Sen. Ted Stevens’ House ally) to see that Arizona gets “its fair share of tax dollars,” saying “We have serious transportation needs down here.” There is also the question of whether or not Graf is ready for prime time. Don’t expect him to get the Club for Growth endorsement, but the 43% he pulled in the 2004 Republican Primary establishes Graf as the obvious frontrunner.

Roll Call reports that Tuscon Mayor Robert Walkup, state Rep. Steve Huffman and state Sen. Toni Hellon are considering primary bids. The Arizona Republic is reporting that state Rep. Jonathan Paton, state Sen. Tim Bee, former Republican National Committeeman Mike Hellon, and Pima County Supervisor Ray Carroll are looking at running as well.

Already running as a Democrat is Arizona state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords, a Clintonian “Centrist” Democrat from Tuscon who is hoping her pro-business views will give her an edge among crossover voters. I’ll say this: she’s pretty cute, she rides a BMW motorcycle and she’s a Fulbright Scholar. I also have to think if she can successfully sell herself as a moderate and if her local ties ring true to her website she could pose a real threat to a candidate like a Randy Graf. Think Stephanie Herseth.

Other Democrat contenders: Already declared are Gulf War vet Jeff Latas, former Tuscon school board member Eva Bacal (who Kolbe bested in the general election last year), businessman Dwight Leister, Democratic activist Francine Shacter, and a 34-year-old former Napolitano aid named Tim Sultan. Former Tuscon Mayor Tim Volgy (who lost to Kolby in the 1998 midterm) is considering making a run, as is former Clinton aid and congressional candidate Fred DuVal, former state Senator Ramon Valadez, and state Rep. Ted Downing.

Advantage: Republicans

Prediction: Giffords takes the Democratic nomination in a runoff, loses to a Republican who is not Randy Graf.

Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Senate Republicans failed to muster the 60 votes necessary to end debate on legislation that includes a provision to allow oil drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

The drilling provision is attached to the $453 billion defense budget for fiscal 2006, which passed the House Dec. 19. Democrats, with help from some Republicans, used a procedural tactic known as filibuster to block consideration of the bill.

The 56-44 vote fell 4 votes short of the three-fifths margin needed to cut off debate. Republicans have 55 seats in the 100-member Senate.

Bloomberg

The “help of some Republicans” came from DeWine and Chafee. The Ohio GOP is beyond screwed up. I thought we had it bad here in Pennsylvania, but having lived in both states I can safely say Ohio’s GOP is far worse, and that is hard to imagine. Is DeWine really this obtuse?

I’ve said it many times before. With Republicans like these who needs Democrats?

The New York State Republican Party got its head out of its buttocks for half a second and actually convinced Jeanine “I’ll make Hillary look like a Republican” Pirro to drop her Senate bid. This is unbelievably good news. Rather than losing with a totally disfunctional candidate that will not provide any inspiration to the base whatsoever, we can run someone who will actually take on the Clinton machine in 2006.

Bear in mind, even if we nominate an apparent conservative rock star like John Spencer there is no way we beat Hillary. The best we can hope for in the NY Senate race is to run a candidate that will show the national base that the GOP is willing and able to stand up to Hillary, and hopefully bloody her up before she sweeps into the White House in 2008, something Pirro by her very liberal nature could not have done.

Prediction: If DeWine is the nominee for the GOP in Ohio we lose the seat to Paul Hackett, perhaps one of the greatest political accidents of all time, a man stumbles into the Senate entirely by accident and luck

Solution: We need to beat DeWine in the primary and soon, unfortunately, there still aren’t any real candidates out there. Sad.

From The Corner:

“CARIBOU TRUMP TROOPS” [Ramesh Ponnuru]
A friend suggests that headline for the news that Senators Chafee and DeWine just voted to filibuster the defense appropriations bill over ANWR.
Posted at 12:48 PM

Well let’s send them a little bitty message:
DONATE TO LAFFEY!

BloggingForBryant has this interesting tid bit:

Democrats don’t want to face a solid conservative like Ed Bryant that can also appeal to rural Democrats. There has been much talk about Bob Corker’s ability to draw in Independent voters in the general because of his moderate credentials. However, if you look at the crosstabs on the Rasmussen survey, it should be noted that Bryant receives more support from Democrats (13/9) and Independents (35/31) than Corker when matched against Ford.

Vice President Dick Cheney rushed home from the Middle East to be on hand to cast a potential tie-breaking vote on the centerpiece of the GOP’s budget agenda — a $39.7 billion bill cutting federal benefit programs like Medicare and Medicaid for the first time in eight years……………

As many as five of 55 Republicans appeared ready to defect on the bill, which would make the first significant curbs in federal benefit programs in nearly a decade. They were Sens. Gordon Smith of Oregon, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine.

You can always count on the usual suspects. Oh, and don’t forget how Liddy Dole is spending millions of NRSC money to keep Chafee in the Senate so that he can keep doing things like vote against cutting wasteful spending.

“The budget reconciliation bill now before the U.S. Senate includes draconian cuts to vital health, education and child support enforcement programs,” Collins said. Among the provisions Collins dislikes are new co-payments for poor people receiving health care from Medicaid and $12.6 billion in cuts to lender subsidies within the student loan program.

Chafee, DeWine and Snowe are seeking new terms next year.

I know, Susie. God forbid the “poor” would have to fork over just a little bit for their healthcare. Obviously, it’s more fair to make me pay for their meds instead.

This budget is a perfect example as to why Mike DeWine is going to lose next year. Ohio is a red state, but DeWine isn’t. The Ohio Republican Party has the RINO disease bad (ie. Taft, Voinovich, LaTourette, and the list goes on) and they have shattered the confidence of grassroots Republicans all across the state. Mike DeWine has always been a shady character when it has come to him being a reliable conservative vote. He had a potential challenger, but that guy decided not to go through with it. That’s too bad. Unless DeWine loses the primary, the Republicans lose a seat in Ohio.

From Politics1:

TENNESSEE. New Rasmussen Report poll out on the open US Senare race. Former Congressman Ed Bryant (R) led Congressman Harold Ford Jr. (D) by a vote of 41% to 38%. Former Congressman Van Hilleary (R) led Ford by a similarly close vote of 41% to 39%. However, Ford led Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker — the most moderate of the GOP contenders — by a 42% to 36% vote.

First of all, I am shocked by how close this race is, definitely not good news for Republicans. Second though, you will note that Mayor Bob Corker, the “moderate” (AKA liberal) Republican candidate is polling nine net points lower in the head to head matchups. Now you may ask, “But Mark I thought moderates were always better general election candidates because they can appeal to everyone”… At which point you should probably stop reading our blog if you believe that, but I digress…

The fact remains that yet again moderates will lose the base and endanger chances at winning seats. Kilgore being a perfect example. I still hope Van Hilleary drops out, as he’s only going to take votes from Ed Bryant. Though both Van and Bryant are solid conservatives, I think Bryant would be the better general election candidate on this one.