Can MAD work with Iran?
Written by Stephen on February 6th, 2006Nuclear obliteration was avoided in the Cold War in no small part because of MAD: Mutually Assured Destruction. The Soviets understood that if they nuked us, we’d nuke them, and vice versa. It wasn’t necessarily moral, but it worked.
But if Arnaud de Borchgrave is right, we may be facing in Iran an enemy that welcomes MAD. In a fascinating commentary for the Wash Times, he writes:
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Shi’ite creed has convinced him lesser mortals can not only influence but hasten the awaited return of the 12th Imam, known as the Mahdi. Iran’s dominant “Twelver” sect holds this will be Muhammad ibn Hasan, the righteous descendant of the Prophet Muhammad. He is said to have gone into “occlusion” in the 9th century, at age 5. His return will be preceded by cosmic chaos, war, bloodshed and pestilence. After this cataclysmic confrontation between the forces of good and evil, the Mahdi will lead the world to an era of universal peace.
“The ultimate promise of all Divine religions,” says Ahmadinejad, “will be fulfilled with the emergence of a perfect human being [the 12th Imam], who is heir to all prophets. He will lead the world to justice and absolute peace. Oh mighty Lord, I pray to you to hasten the emergence of your last repository, the promised one.” He reckons the return of the Imam, AWOL for 11 centuries, is only two years away.
read it all here.
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Of course MAD won’t work. These people are not motivated by the same things that motivate us. To assume so is extremely euro-centric. MAD only works when both sides have something to lose. The Islamic world is willing to go out in a firey blaze of nuclear glory, they have certainly demonstrated their complete lack of regard for their own personal safety when it comes to waging war as individuals. To think that they would wage war as a country any differently is nonesense.
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Another point: Muslims have been expecting the Mahdi for years now. A young Winston Churchill witnessed the result of this madness first hand at the battle of Omdurman in 1898 when the muslims of Sudan had rallied around the “Mahdi” (who died before the battle) to create a pure Islamic state in central Africa. They were slaughtered by the British in the battle and Sudan was part of the British Empire within a year. These people have always been irrational, motivated not by earthy concerns, but by the demands of Allah.
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MAD wouldn’t work with Iran because it is of the highest calling for Muslims to die for Allah. In a battle against infidels, all Muslims are called to participate. I don’t know if it’s necessarily irrational as much as different than a Western concentration on the preservation of human life.
I think that with regards to Iran, Israel is watching them pretty closely and will move to act before we do. And, considering the history of Israeli military victory, they would probably be successful.
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“I think that with regards to Iran, Israel is watching them pretty closely and will move to act before we do. And, considering the history of Israeli military victory, they would probably be successful.”
I think you are right, however it is the height of insanity to rely on another country to ensure your own security. We must have the will power to confront Iran, even if it makes the europeans cry.