Ben Stein doesn’t want that to happen, and thinks the GOP needs to draw up a new Contract With America to make well sure it doesn’t.

When the balloting for national chairman at the 2005 College Republican National Convention wrapped up on June 25, 2005, it was clear that we had a very divided country on our hands. 23 state federations supported Michael Davidson’s YourCRNC ticket and 20 state federations plus the District of Columbia supported the Gourley-Beeson ticket. 7 states split their delegates between the two candidates, often revealing conflicting interests and factions within those federations. What has happened in the 12 months since the “Thriller at the Gateway Marriott”? Plus ca change, plus le meme chose.

The Long View

The next national convention is still a lifetime away. There are too many variables to consider to make a valid prediction right now.

(1) We don’t know who the candidates will be. Will Gourley seek re-election? (Why wouldn’t he? Anyone would love to speak at the 2008 RNC Convention after all.) Or will he clear the way for Dan Schuberth or Jess Beeson to run? As for the so-called opposition, the names most frequently tossed around are Nick Miccarelli, Mike Miltenberger, Hugh Derek Hall, and to a lesser extent Blake Harris. Will a dark horse emerge? Will the “opposition” even be unified in 2007, or will we face a three candidate race for the first time since Scott Stewart vs. Buzz Jacobs vs. John Yob in 1999? (Note the outcome of that one.) Will a credible opposition candidate even emerge? Those hoping for Miccarelli to bring his desert mojo to the CRNC race might find him a reluctant warrior. All the personnel issues need to be worked out before we have a clear picture of the national chair race.

(2) We know that probably at least half of the current state chairs will no longer be in office come spring 2007, opening up the door for a lot of things to change. We also know that we can’t talk hard numbers until there is a credentials report (i.e. April 1, 2007). CR Vets know that CRNC credentials reports don’t lend themselves to easy predictions. Invariably a large federation or two will screw up their credentials report, costing one or both sides significant numbers of delegates. The faction that comes out on top will be the one that is the most disciplined with their credentials packets. States that have sloppy transitions in the spring are not going to help that process. Another issue to remember is that until the CRNC Constitution is amended to rectify the problem, it is still possible that states submitting late or incomplete credentials packets will not get any delegates.

(3) Because of the foregoing, the composition of the Credentials Committee is of enormous import. It proposes potential auditing firms to the National Board (the national officers plus the 51 federation chairs) and can amend the auditing firm’s report by a unanimous vote. The Credentials Committee is chaired by CRNC Co-Chair Jess Beeson and consists of Beeson plus two members from each Area Caucus. An independent arbitrator from the American Arbitration Association mediates and rules on credentials disputes; their ruling can be overturned/substituted by (as mentioned a moment ago) a unanimous vote of the Credentials Committee. Because Co-Chair Beeson is a voting member of the committee, it would be impossible for the opposition to dominate the Credentials Committee even if it won all eight elected seats. Nonetheless, it would be preferable for the opposition to have a majority of five or more members. Two members of the Credentials Committee that will serve in 2007 have already been elected: Vermont CR Chair Zachary Elmore and Connecticut’s Sarah Armstrong, both considered to be supporters of the incumbent CRNC administration. The remaining six will be elected over the next several weeks.

The View From The Caucuses

(No, not the part of Russia. )

Northeastern area - By my count the Northeastern caucus is home to approximately six pro-incumbent states and six pro-opposition states. Massachusetts CR Chairman Mike Miltenberger was unopposed for the largely ceremonial office of caucus chairman, but the Establishment’s Elmore, Armstrong and Ethan Wingfield of Rhode Island were elected Credentials Committee members and caucus secretary, respectively. The Northeastern area is also a region that can turn on a dime. Three small federations in particular are vulnerable to sudden change: tiny Delaware, with only three chapters (a 50% increase since DFCR Chairman Seth Wimer took office!); Rhode Island, where Ethan Wingfield showed up at the state convention and defeated the previously unopposed Tom Merrigan (the favored candidate of Rhode Island’s outgoing vice chairman Ryan Bilodeau); and the District of Columbia, currently led by Mark Harris ally and GWU CR Mike Keough, a federation longtime CR operatives say can never be won by the opposition during an odd-numbered year due to its close relationship with the CRNC. [For what it's worth, I don't know how much faith I'd put in that truism.]

Southern Area - The south has long been the bread and butter of the opposition. Currently home to 10 “opposition” states and only 3 pro-incumbent states, you can put good money on the opposition taking both Credentials seats from the south. Southern opposition leaders are rumored to be leaning toward allowing the notorious Keith Gates of Louisiana to continue as caucus chair. Virginia is grey (too close to call) on my map because its potential to swing back to the pro-establishment faction depending on who succeeds current CRFV Chairman Andrew Lamar. A source informs that CRFV Treasurer Mary Pauline Jones volunteered with Gourley’s national chair campaign during last year’s convention. If she or another ally of former CRFV Chair Brian Mazanec were to come to power, it would be to the detriment of the opposition (Virginia carried five delegates last year — not an insignificant number.)

Midwestern Area - The midwest currently breaks down to (by my estimate) 8 pro-opposition states and 5 pro-establishment states. Some are stalwarts on their respective sides (Kentucky and Wisconsin for the opposition; Indiana for the establishment). Some are on shaky ground. Ohio’s Brian Siler is considered by many to be a friend of the opposition, succeeding Julie Corvo who gradually became more critical of the CRNC establishment after giving Co-Chair Beeson’s nominating speech in June 2005. We have yet to see Siler in action, but if he is the real deal it could bring enormous rewards: Ohio had 8 delegates in 2005. Chairman Gourley’s native South Dakota is rumored to be a potential pickup for the opposition, especially in the event their native son does not decide to seek re-election. South Dakota Chairman Ryan Brunner has not been vocal in CRNC controversies to date, but his predecessor was known to be no fan of Gourley.

Western Area - The Western Area is the one most in flux at the moment. The west has their caucus elections this Saturday, June 10 at 3:00 P.M. at the CRNC offices in DC. Washington’s Brent Ludeman has announced for caucus chair and is campaigning for it, intending to put forward the opposition slate for the west as his ticket. Colorado’s Charlie Smith is his likely opponent. Smith is not campaigning publicly. Ludeman has endorsements from the chairs of Alaska, California, Montana, New Mexico, Oregon, and the national committeewoman for Wyoming. That would seem to be, with his own vote as WFCR chairman, the 7 votes of 13 he and the opposition need to win. The problem is that rumors presently abound that Oregon’s John Swanson is switching his vote to Smith and the CRNC establishment. Last year the opposition could have counted on the steadfast support of Hawaii, but then-Chair Jame Schaedel and Vice Chair Emily Klatt have left office. I do not know where Hawaii’s Chad Stovall stands, but if Hawaii and Oregon both were to go for Charlie Smith, it would allow the establishment to run the table in the west. Bottom line: The opposition will get four seats on the Credentials Committee from the Southern and Midwestern caucuses. Whether it gets the extra seat it needs to have a majority on the committee comes down to the Western Caucus elections this Saturday.

The View From The States

I’ve colored in eight federations as impossible to predict for 2007. By no means does that indicate that the others will stay the colors they are. It simply means that the stories will get stranger when they do. States that should “hold” for the opposition include: Alabama (Chairman Blake Harris), Arkansas (Chairman John Burris), California (Chairman Mason Harrison), Florida (Chairman Scott Wacholtz), Kentucky (Chairman Hugh Derek Hall), Massachusetts (Chairman Mike Miltenberger), Michigan (Chairman Dan Carlson), Mississippi (Chairman Natalie Cole), New Mexico (newly unified under Chairman Dusty Marshall), New York (Chairman Erin McTiernan), North Carolina (Chairman Jon Thompson), Pennsylvania (Chairman Nick Miccarelli), Tennessee (Chairman Lindsay Moffett), Texas (Chairman Eliza Vielma), Washington (Chairman Brent Ludeman) and Wisconsin (Chairman Mary Ellen Burke). States not on this list generally either have a history of “flipping” or have already been mentioned. Several of the states on this last have long histories of being part of the opposition (i.e. Wisconsin, the state that abstained instead of voting for the unopposed Eric Hoplin for CRNC Chairman in 2003). The opposition therefore has a hard “base” of 16 federations.

Overall, by my best estimate there are 27 federations leaning toward the “opposition,” 16 federations leaning toward the “establishment,” and 8 federations that are impossible to call. Using the 2005 CRNC credentials report that would be 82 opposition delegates, 61 establishment delegates, and 29 annoying undecided delegates. Only time will tell how the real math will go in 10 months when the 2007 credentials report comes out. In the meanwhile, all we can do is wait.