Mark and I both worked pretty hard on the Toomey race in 2004. The establishment laughed at the idea that Pat would actually be a contender but they were soon eating crow when he came within a percent and a half of picking off Arlen Specter in the Republican Primary. Since that time Pat has earned a great deal of respect among Pennsylvania’s political elite and has become a conservative icon not just here, but across the country. There is no doubt in my mind that he will be running again come 2010, but will he have to fight the party again? That all depends on Rick Santorum.
We all know Rick is in the fight for his political life this year, running a race for reelection in which he has yet to come out above his opponent in any poll this entire season. Rick is the left’s number one target and is vehemently despised by their base for his outspoken conservativism. The problem is that Rick isn’t exactly the brash fireball he used to be when he told us all to “join the fight” 16 years ago during his first bid for Congress. While he still has a good voting record for the conservative cause, anyone who takes a closer look at his record can plainly see he has drifted left over the years and isn’t as solid as he used to be. That is the real problem Rick is facing this year. A lot of what used to be his base feels he sold out to Washington and his backing of Specter in the 2004 primary has really scarred him. If he loses in two weeks, which is panning out to be the end result, it will be because his based abandoned him for these reasons. However, the media won’t portray it that way.
Rick will have lost because he is too conservative to once again win a statewide race in a moderate state like Pennsylvania. At least, that’s what the New York Times will say. The question is what will the powers-that-be of the State GOP say and what will a Santorum loss mean for Toomey in ‘10? If the conventional wisdom of a state party that isn’t very wise subscribes to the myth that conservatism can’t cut it in Pennsylvania anymore then Toomey is going to have to fight a double battle when the times come.
This is what concerns me most about this Senate race and why I will be voting for Rick Santorum on November 7th.
MSNBC