My Final Senate Predictions
Written by Sam on October 30th, 2006We are one week out now and I am making my final predictions for what I believe the result of next Tuesday’s Senate elections will be. Let’s see how close I come:
| State | Winner | Party |
| Connecticut | Lieberman | Independent |
| Maryland | Steele | Republican |
| Michigan | Stabenow | Democrat |
| Minnesota | Klobuchar | Democrat |
| Missouri | Talent | Republican |
| Montana | Tester | Democrat |
| New Jersey | Kean | Republican |
| Ohio | Brown | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania | Casey | Democrat |
| Rhode Island | Whitehouse | Democrat |
| Tennessee | Corker | Republican |
| Virginia | Allen | Republican |
| Washington | Cantwell | Democrat |
30
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The latest scorecard at NRO shows Allen, Corker, Talent Steele and Kean all losing. It is looking pretty grim right now, but the election isn’t tonight so hope springs eternal.
31
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I’d guess that the dems keep MD, and should manage to pick off TN and MO. Not too sure about NJ.
What’s interesting is the lack of correspondence between where the dems are running good candidates and where they’re doing well. Cardin and McCaskill, for example, are utterly incoherent against their Republican opponents (Talent, in particular, really surprised me). On the other hand, Webb is an extremely bright, thoughtful and well-spoken guy — particuarly against Allen, whose “style” seems to mix loud, rambling rants with Republican talking points — but I suspect that Webb will lose decisively. Eh, no accounting for taste I guess.
31
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my predictions:
Connecticut: Lieberman
Maryland: Steele
Michigan: Stabenow
Minnesota: Kennedy
Missouri: Talent
Montana: Burns
New Jersey: Menendez
Ohio: Brown
Pennsylvania: Santorum
Rhode Island: Whitehouse
Tennessee: Corker
Virginia: Allen
Washington: Cantwell
31
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Mr. Mulgrew — Are you a gambling man? I’ll give you 10-1 odds against Kennedy, Burns and Santorum. They’ll all lose by at least 5 points.
31
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I encourage every one of you to find a competitive House district this weekend and make it worth your time. Curt Weldon, Jim Gerlach, I can name so many solid Republican candidates who need every helping hand they can get. We need a huge huge effort this weekend.
1
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I would hardly consider Gerlach to be a “solid” Republican candidate, but I think he will win.
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It seems to me that you Reps should be glad to get rid of people like Weldon. Given his legal problems and his disgusting attacks on Admiral Sestak and his family, he’s become more of a liability than an asset.
While we’re on PA, same is true for Don Sherwood, also a total embarrassment to your party. I’d be aching for ANYONE else to win if I were a republican.
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Having studied under Curt Weldon and getting to know him, he’s a wonderful man who is willing to stand up to the Bush Administration on foreign policy and do what he thinks is right. While he isn’t as conservative as I’d like, you can’t expect much more considering the demographics of his district. He will be an excellent fighter as the next Chairman of the Armed Services Committee and hopefully will hold military spending more accountable.
Weldon has never attacked Sestak’s family, that was the foolish decision of his campaign chairman. The contract his daughter was awared two and a half years ago was cleared by the House Ethics Committee. The recent raid on his daughter’s home was politically motivated. Do you see the FBI raiding the homes of Sen. Harry Reid’s sons? Since they have lobbied his office and he has steered millions of dollars to their firms that the Los Angeles Times said that Reid “was in a class by himself”?
What angers me about Sestak is he doesn’t know a damn thing about the Seventh Congressional District. I don’t hold his military service against him or the fact that he hasn’t lived here for the last 30 years. What I hold against him is the fact that he moved here solely to run for Congress, without bothering to learn anything about our community.
It’s quite telling when local labor unions and Democratic officials endorse Weldon and campaign with him, while Sestak only has national Democratic groups to prop him up. Having watched him debate Weldon personally, what little federal issues he understands are merely naked anti-Bush political opportunism.
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One point — I’m really getting tired of candidates (democrats AND repulicans) blaming other people for despicable attacks launched by their own campaigns. The hot potato with that disgusting Ford ad is one example: Corker has no control over what the RNC puts on the air, Mehlman has no control over it either evidently.
This is the first time I’ve EVER heard candidates using this ridiculous excuse to absolve themselves from responsibility from what their campaigns are doing, and it seems to have caught on to nearly everyone. I’m not familiar enough with his shady business dealings to speak to this point, but I’m not at all sympathetic to your excuse for his campaign’s attacks on Weldon’s 4-year-old daughter with brain cancer. How low can you get? The buck stops with him, as far as I’m concerned.
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Weldon and his campaign never “attacked” Sestak’s family. Sestak uses his daughter’s condition as a sad excuse as to why he hasn’t lived in our district for 30 years. Pennsylvania has plenty of excellent doctors that could treat his daughter. If her condition is so bad that she can’t switch to Pennsylvania doctors then why the hell is he up here running for Congress instead staying down there caring for his daughter?
How Weldon’s campaign handled it wasn’t wise, but I’m not voting for a political opportunist who doesn’t know anything about the district.
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Admiral Sestak has his daughter treated at the place where he thinks she would be best cared for, like any Father would do. Instead of being an apologist for his disgusting attacks on a 4 year-old with brain cancer, how about sucking it up and admitting it was wrong, rather than just “not wise” politically. It’s going to cost Weldon the election, too. Want to bet money?
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I support Admiral Sestak doing whatever he needs to care for his daughter, and constitutionally he is not required to reside in the district he wants to represent.
I also support Rick Santorum’s desire to spend time with his children, and raising them in the DC area in order to do so. Thoughts?
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Yeah, I agree with you — I’d say that the attacks on Sestak are probably higher up on the tasteless chart given his daughter’s medical condition, but I certainly agree that the attacks on Santorum are equally nonsubstantive.