In 2008 John McCain could well capture the Republican nomination for the same reason that Bob Dole did in 1996. Regardless of his chances against Bill Clinton, Republicans gave the nod to Dole because he’d earned it by long service to his party. It was his “turn.” McCain, by staunch campaigning in 2000 for the election of the man who defeated him in the primaries worked to earn what Dole had in the same way. By working hard for George Bush again in 2004 and for his party’s congressional candidates in 2006, McCain has amassed a huge stack of political chips among party leaders and back benchers. He wants people to believe that 2008 is his “turn”, no matter how he stacks up against his Republican competition or against his likely Democratic opponent. That could be enough to get major donors to commit to him early and hogtie enough Republican state organizations to pre-empt a competitive primary race. But McCain is mercurial. And when the heat is on, he often lashes out.

McCain has been a media darling ever since he grandstanded his “anti-torture” amendment in faux opposition to the Bush administration’s policy (which didn’t allow torture, a practice that was illegal years before McCain’s amendment). As McCain gains momentum toward ’08, his former media friends will be tossing him in the same frying pan as all the other potential nominees. All it will take is one big explosion of the McCain temper and those same former friends will be writing editorials and op-eds comparing him to Captain Queeg. McCain has a very long way to go before he’s locked up anything. And so does Sen. Clinton.

Real Clear Politics

Anybody who thinks that McCain, Hillary, Obama, or whoever has their nomination locked up knows little about how politics and campaigning work. All the hype by the media and the polls taken mean nothing two years out of an election. I have little doubt that John McCain will NOT be the GOP nominee and that is a wonderful thing. There are plenty of other candidates out there who would better represent our party who have yet to throw their hat in the ring. Don’t be fooled.