Newt Bubble Building?
Written by Mark Harris on February 12th, 2007I just voted in the GOP bloggers poll and was shocked to find Newt (26%) running a solid second behind Giuliani (34.4%), with McCain pulling a measly 2.6%. I am always shocked by how much the hatred for McCain runs in the blogosphere and in Republican inner circles. So if both hate him, how can he win? I am starting to think he is a very big paper tiger. Which could play right into the “Newt Bubble” imagine a McCain collapse in support in mid-fall, leaving just Giuliani and Romney… there is clearly room for a consensus candidate… Newt Gingrich who has shown surprising strength while running absolutely no official campaign. Now I am in no way endorsing Newt, but I do think the perfect storm necessary for him to win the nomination could be forming.
Consider that Newt would play to the desire for the base for a solid conservative (whether he truly is or not we could debate but no doubt he is publicly perceived as so) along with the distrust of Romney as a flip-flopper (a potent sting in a party that spent a billion dollars hammering flip-floppers in ‘04) and Giuliani (as well Giuliani, not to mention the corruption rumors that swirl around his consulting firm). If nothing else its interesting.
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I’d actually like a Newt candidacy. He’s a smart guy, and if the democrats run someone thoughtful and well-spoken, we could actually have a good political discourse at the national level for the first time in awhile.
Still, I can’t help but point out the irony that the two top candidates in the “family values party” are multiple divorcees, one having divorced his wife on his deathbed to run off with a mistress half his age and the other having taxpayers pay to guard his forays with his mistress. This from the same bunch that stalled national business for a year to harass President Clinton for lying about his girlfriend.
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I trust Newt as far as I could throw him, but he is looking golden compared to the other options right now.
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Some friendly advice from a Democrat, Mike- don’t fall into the trap of supporting someone because they’re better than the other options. It didn’t work well with Kerry. You need to support someone because you like them as a candidate.
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Agreed with David. Newt is an awful candidate. What he tries to pass off as intellectualism is really just being a policy wonk, which people hate. He would lost to Obama by at least 10 points…in Georgia.
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Newt would cleanup in Georgia.
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Newt could win IMO, but that is hardly the point. I agree with you David and that is why, as of now anyway, I am supporting Ron Paul.
Alex, I would love to come to CPAC, but I don’t think I have the time or the $$ to swing it right now.
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I’m so unabashedly excited by the groundswell gathering by Newt, since it’d be a welcome change to have a President, with I donno, policy ideas. The lack of which has been this administration’s biggest failure.
I’ll concede that Newt has serious baggage, but he’s head and shoulders above McCain (I’m starting to be convinced that he’s actually a fascist (his policies for creating a police state regarding internet freedom, campaign finance, et al.)), Guiliani (Laughable, just as a Republican), or Romney (The second coming of George W.).
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“. . . it’d be a welcome change to have a President, with I donno, policy ideas. The lack of which has been this administration’s biggest failure.”
I slightly disagree with you here. The problem hasn’t been the lack of policy, rather policy that was not in line with the words coming out of the president’s mouth during both his campaigns. It was clearly a case of say one thing and do another, with the “talk” being conservative (and thus getting him elected) and the “action” being liberal (his true nature).
The Medicare plan, the Social Security debacle, the mismanagement from day one of the Pentagon, the big government perscriptions to whatever problem seemed to come up were not accidents in my opinion. They were carefully thoughtout responses that aligned perfectly with the establishment GOP and Bush’s agenda.
Katrina hits New Orleans? No problem we’ll bury the city, state and region in cash until no one cares about the damage anymore. This fundamental problem, the ease with which the GOP spends my $ is the core reason none of the current “front runners” are really exciting anyone. Everyone already knows to expect the double talk.
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“I am always shocked by how much the hatred for McCain runs in the blogosphere and in Republican inner circles. So if both hate him, how can he win?”
The decision ultimately comes down to what the voters think, not what a few bloggers and Washington insiders think…
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I think you have a good point there David; though I find the early blogosphere polls interesting and telling, specifically about “movement” conservatives, I am hesitant to take them too literally when it comes to primary season. Do we have influence? Yeah. Do we represent some people in the Republican realm? Yeah. Are we representative of the Republican primary voters? Ehhh… not so sure about that one. Let’s not act like the Kossites here and think that our word is the word of the Almighty when it comes to primary season. Our word may or may not be very indicative of what the average Joe voting in the primary thinks about John McCain et al. The leftwing blogosphere was coocoo for Howard Dean and he went nowhere fast.