Ames Caucus
Written by Sam on August 11th, 2007Today is what is considered by many to be the most important straw poll of the presidential election, the Ames, Iowa straw poll, happening today. This should weed out some of the second tier candidates, because if they have a good showing today the likelihood of having the funding to continue the race is slim. With McCain and Giuliani not participating, it is widely speculated that Romney will emerge the winner. What is really important is who places second and that is probably what will make or break Huckabee, Brownback, and Tommy Thompson. It will also be interesting to see how many write ins both Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich receive.
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I had planned on making this post BEFORE the results were in but reality had other plans, nevertheless…
Given the attention Romney given to the straw poll and the fact that he is the only one of the three first tier candidates to attend anything less than finish #1 is a failure. I do expect him to win.
If Giuliani, the supposed front runner, doesn’t finish at least second it will be a defeat for him even if he didn’t participate.
The same is true for failing McCain who isn’t participating either. If doesn’t finish at least third it can be considered a defeat for him.
Whichever non-first tier candidates finishin the top five can consider it a victory. I expect Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul to finish in the top five and that Tommy Thompson and Sam Brownback won’t.
Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich have nothing to lose since they aren’t official candidates but if they manage to finish in the top five anyway it would be a victory.
If John Cox gets more than 2% he can consider it a victory.