Warner Set to Enter VA Race
Written by Sean on September 13th, 2007Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner will enter the Virginia Senate race today. Liberal Republican Rep. Tom Davis and former Gov. Jim Gilmore are expected to battle for the right to lose to Warner. Some are pushing Rep. Eric Cantor for the seat. With all due respect to Cantor, I don’t think we can beat Warner next year and I’d like him to stick around in the House. We might lose in ‘08, but we don’t have to give the Democrats any more open seat targets than they already have.
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Ah, the fighting spirit of France. We surrender now. Surrender early. Surrender often.
If Fred runs against HRH Hillary I - we win with Jim Gilmore head to head - Liberal to Conservative - as part of the victory bow wave.
All quitters please fall out now and whimper quietly, privately, until after Nov 08.
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None of the candidates being talked about (Tom Davis or Jim Gilmore) have a prayer against Warner. Polls show him leading both of them by 20 points. However, I hear the true leader of the Right, Patrick J. Buchanan, is being talked about.
http://republicansenate.org/2007/09/11/go-pat-go-go-pat-go/
I don’t think this is going to happen and I know the Beltway Right would hate it if Buchanan arose once more to disrupt their cocktail parties. (After all, National Review called him an “unpatriotic conservative” for opposing Bush’s glorious war for democracy in Iraq.)
But I would sell all my worldly possessions and work for the campaign and I have to think that there are a few other members of the old Buchanan Brigades who would be ready for one least fight and give everything for this man. The media would smear him as a racist and everything else, but that would backfire because people are so pissed about illegal immigration. Just look at the political triumphs all over Northern Virginia on this issue despite media smears. Warner could also not attack Pat on the war.
I don’t think the GOP establishment can win this fight. A nonentity like Davis certainly has no shot. Might as well try a ridiculous, high profile campaign that if successful, would give us an amazing right wing senator.
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*shudders* - Buchanan’s time has passed. He would be a distraction for the party if he ran again at this time.
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Yeah I know, (sigh). He won’t run. But the question is, do we have anybody in VA?
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true leader of the right? Buchanan? not my leader thanks
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Pat “Protectionist” Buchanan? I’m with Chris on this one.
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James, I tried to post a reply earlier, so my apologies if this shows up twice.
Right now, I could call about 400 of the 469 races between the House and Senate next year, as could anyone else who follows this stuff religiously. That is not an insult to you. I have majored in politics, worked in politics, and plan to eventually go back to working in it. I am certain that you could teach me quite a bit about whatever it is you do and whatever hobbies you have.
Perhaps you could appreciate the post in a broader context. I’m not advocating not fighting. I’m advocating marshalling our resources to put ourselves in the best position we possibly can in 2009. I think that best case scenario is 47-48 seats. 45-46 is probably more likely. If we make the same mistake we did in 2005/2006, though, in expending valuable resources on lost causes, we could end up with 40-41.
In the last cycle, resources were spent on defending Santorum and Chafee. Santorum was done as soon as Casey entered. In summer of 2006, it became clear that Chafee was toast. Had the time and money that was spent on those two races gone to either Montana, where Conrad Burns lost by less than 4000 votes or Virginia, where George Allen lost by less than 10,000, we would probably still be in the majority today.
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RE: “…resources were spent on defending Santorum … Had the time and money that was spent … ”
I wish that time and money for Santorum had been spent IN PENNSYLVANIA for some “down ticket” candidates. Perhaps then we would have hung on to the PA House.
Sorry — I must still be in the bitter phase.
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Even though he ranked high in that “Best Looking on Capitol Hill” contest, I seriously pity poor John Ensign right now.
While I agree with most of your assessments Sean, you might be a bit too pessimistic about Virginia. Sure, M. Warner SHOULD be favored now, but that doesn’t mean we should shy away from running our best candidates.
Remember that George Allen looked like a sure-fire re-election until he self-destructed. And nationally, a lot can change in a year that could turn the tide in this race.
An old political mentor once told me, “Always run something. If you have something, you always have a chance. If you have nothing, you’ll lose no matter what”.
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This Sean person really just is a Republican party hack. He doesn’t fit in well on your website.
Complaining about not enough $$ being spent on Conrad Burns? Isn’t he the kind of clown you people claim to advocate getting rid of? Conrad Burns was the worst of all pork-barrel spenders (in addition to being a crook and a racist idiot). And you’re complaining that he lost?
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Sean. Glad you worked in politics. I taught politics. Now, I work in it as a party guy - 15 years plus. You need to learn more about Virginia politics. I’ll defer to you when it comes to Montana and your hobbies.
Warner can be beat. If Gilmore is the candidate and, especially, if Fred Thompson is running against HRH Hillary I then Warner will be beaten.
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James, I hope you’re right, but for now I don’t believe it. There are two very well known state-wide figures, both former Governors, and one leads the other by 20 points, 54-34. Can you please explain what is going to move those numbers so dramatically between now and next November? If you can, great. If, on the other hand, your only case is that there are thirteen and a half months between now and the Election, I will stand by my case that successfully defending this seat is a pipe dream.
The arrogant tone of my last post was uncalled for. I’ve had plenty of conversations with people who really do think that every race is winnable. I should have first given you the opportunity to explain what makes this race in particular different from, let’s say, John Kerry’s reelection. Here’s your chance.
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Sean: How did George Allen overcome a 30 point margin from June 93 to November 93?
Organization in 134 cities and counties.
3x 60:40 Virginia-wide reasons to elect George
A Democrat promising to be a tax and spend Democrat.
Plus the dynamic of the Presidential race will overshadow everything. If Fred is moving to a blow out of HRH Hillary I, that helps. If things are going badly, then there is drag down ticket.
I’ve been involved in 6 races in Virginia where we were outspent 2:1, 3:1, 10:1 and 50:1 and we won. Having the truth on your side helps.
It’s candidate, issues and campaign being better than the opponent.
You must live in NoVa.
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James,
Allen was an unknown who had served one term in the House prior to his Senate bid. There is a lot more room for someone who has represented only a small part of the state to grow than for someone who has already been Governor.
With regard to the Presidential race, our nominee will be lucky to carry Virginia. I don’t want to bet time and money on Fred Thompson or, more likely, Rudy Giuliani, running up the score. If they do, great. Do you really think it prudent to use resources that could go to saving Norm Coleman or helping Bob Schaffer in the hopes of the Presidential nominee having coattails?
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As I said, you must live in NoVa.
I grew up there - and left a long, long time ago.
The election of 08 will be about more than $ x million going from the NRC to one candidate in one state or another. Resources (= $) matter, but they are only one factor in making a win. And the flow of money change as the election evolves.
If Giuliani is our nominee, then I agree that we lose nationally and, possibly, in Virginia.