Huckabee, Obama Now Lead in Iowa
Written by Sam on December 2nd, 2007From the Des Moines Register:
- Huckabee - 29%
- Romney - 24%
- Giuliani - 13%
- Thompson - 9%
- McCain - 7%
- Paul - 7%
- Tancredo - 6%
- Hunter - 1%
B. Hussein Obama is also now ahead of Hillary by 3 points.
2
PM
Run those numbers up with a calculator, and you’ll see a total of 96% of likely voters are responding to the poll.
Now, in some polls it’s a little bit lower, like 90%. Either way, the only way “up” in Iowa is to take votes from somebody else. It’s going to be a roller coaster.
2
PM
The primary system confuses me- if Giuliani and Clinton are leading among national polls, why does it matter what one relatively small state thinks? This is a serious question. I don’t get it.
2
PM
Another reason that certain states shouldn’t be guaranteed the earliest spots?
2
PM
Huckabee is on his way to blowing Romney out of the water in Iowa. Then Giuliani will take New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and finish the Huck off on National Primary Tuesday by crushing him in the east and west. This show will be over before March Madness.
3
AM
David, once people start casting votes, it’s all about momentum. Romney or Huckabee will look like a winner. Rudy (hopefully) will look like a loser. That’s why four years ago Kerry had to win Iowa to save New Hampshire, and once he won both, it was all over but the crying.
3
AM
But the changes in the schedule this year make the momentum aspect at least more difficult to predict.
Many candidates are predicating their entire strategy on momentum (actually everyone except Rudy). Mitt needs both IA and NH; Huck needs IA and a good finish in NH; Fred needs a good showing in IA and a win in SC; McCain has to win NH (though I still don’t see what is supposed to happen from there). All of them require those items PLUS momentum into Super Tuesday.
Rudy will easily survive to Super Tuesday due to his position and strategy. I think no more than 2 survive to Super Tuesday based on momentum–possibly only 1. I want Fred, but cannot begin to predict if he will be one of the one or two that makes it to Super Tuesday. I would guess that McCain is one of the losers. I hope Huck is a second loser (because of his effect on Fred and the fact that he would destroy the Republican party)
3
PM
I think another factor that is hard to predict is how the Super Tuesday states ideological bent will impact the race. While I lean towards saying the more moderate to liberal states like New York, California, and New Jersey, will make it easier for Giuliani to pull it off, it just remains too much in the air.
6
PM
Let see. One say the social conservative is going to split between Rudy and Huckabee (why would they do that?)
While the majority of fiscal conservatives will go where?(borrowing for war and not looking at how to repay it as you do turns my stomach!!)
The pro-mil will go to Rudy(ahh, I guess this is where you are making your gains at? Forget McCain, Rudy can give a better speech!)
Which leaves the Paleo’s turning to who?
Forget it. If conservatives are not looking at the character but listening to the talk then Rudy is definitely your man.
But if it really is principle, it is better to swarm around Huckabee now and get him to commit to some high caliber fiscal and military con. advisors and push for him.
Rudy is going to fall with his debate buddy Romney. Now that I know Romney is all plastic with little personality.