Wikipedia Primary Polling
Written by Sam on December 12th, 2007Someone had linked to this on a political message board I was reading and I thought it was interesting to share. According to the poll tracking that has been kept on this site, they say Giuliani is going to win the primary in a landslide when you add up the delegate votes.
- Giuliani 1342 delegates
- Huckabee 342 delegates
- Romney 165 delegates
- Thompson 149 delegates
- McCain 67 delegates
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The problem with his analysis is that almost no states are winner-take-all when allocating delegates. In reality, almost all of these states will be split at least two ways (and mostly likely three or four ways), so the delegate total is really much more spread out than it looks right now. That being said, yes, Giuliani probably does have a significant lead, but we can hope that the field will narrow before he can run away with it.
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I would like to note that at the time I checked the page stated “This article has been nominated to be checked for its neutrality,” had Guiliani picked to win AZ …. I don’t think so, and is completley irrelevant since momentum is a huge factor in presidential primaries (all states don’t vote on the same day).
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I have a hard time believing Giuliani would win Texas.
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Remember Sam that Giuliani has raised the most money of any Republican in Texas. He has got a lot of support among the oil industry too along with Rick Perry.
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Ryan, Gov. Perry came remarkably close a few days ago to swinging his support to Huckabee.
As to this sort of polling, it’s pretty meaningless. Anything beyond Florida - perhaps anything beyond New Hampshire or even Iowa - is entirely meaningless. Thompson probably drops out after Iowa, hopefully after finishing in fourth. That changes the game in the South. Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo will probably call it quits after Iowa, too. Their support is unlikely to go to Rudy. McCain, I expect, will be done after New Hampshire. If this thing is a three-man race before it heads South, especially if Rudy is yet to pick up a single delegate before then, which is entirely possible, I find it extremely difficult to see him winning the nomination.
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Actually, KL, many Republican primaries are winner-take-all. Democrats use different rules and split their delegates up. Each party is allowed to make their own rules for choosing their candidate.