December 23rd, 2007

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Merry Christmas!

Sunday, December 23rd, 2007

Well, I am heading to the airport in about an hour, on my way to Mordor, a desolate wasteland that sometimes is referred to as Michigan. Needless to say I won’t be writing for the next couple of days so have a merry Christmas everyone, even you, Publius.

McCain Has a Good Tax Plan

Sunday, December 23rd, 2007
His broad proposal calls for a repeal to the alternative minimum tax, known as the AMT, which was passed in 1969 to prevent a small amount of high-income earners from deducting their entire tax liability.Since the AMT was never attached to inflation, its burden is expected to creep up to affect 23 million taxpayers in the middle class when it was never intended to, McCain said.

An immediate repeal, as McCain directed, would save middle class families with children that are taxed by the AMT an average of $2,700.

“I worry about obviously any reduction in revenues but to have basically two tax codes in America is not an acceptable situation,” he said.

The AMT repeal is a centerpiece for work McCain called for to simplify the tax code that’s grown bigger and more complicated with each congressional bill.

“You paid $14 billion last year to pay someone to do your taxes and you had no idea - American families had no idea whether it was valid or legitimate in anyway,” McCain said.

To direct the tax code revisions, McCain said he’d appoint a commission headed by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to make recommendations for a reform for Congress to support.

“Have them report out and then Congress would vote up or down,” McCain said.

Saving Social Security and Medicare are also priorities, McCain said. Supporting personal accounts to supplement the social security crisis, McCain said he’d reach across the aisle to Democrats to make sure promised benefits are honored.

“Now are we going to fix it the way Ronald Reagan and Tip O’neil did back in 1983 or are we going to hand it off to an unluckier generation of Americans?” McCain asked.

Other incentives in the tax policy called for a permanent tax ban on the Internet and cellular phone communications while rewarding savings and investment with lower taxes on dividends and capital gains.

The Union Leader

I like this plan. Taxes on savings and investment should be kept low to continue to spur future investment and economic growth. Private accounts in Social Security are an absolute must. You can’t use a system created for 1930s America in 2007. We’re not the same country as we were then. AMT repeal is another must. It punishes people for success even more so than the general income tax structure. More tax cuts for the middle class are also needed. Ideally, while I’d love to see the income tax go the way of the dodo completely, in the very least I think it should be completely wiped away for middle class folks and below. Say, you don’t pay any tax on income until you hit like $80,000 or something, just as an example. Excellent idea to put Alan Greenspan on the panel!

Zogby’s Take on the Candidates

Sunday, December 23rd, 2007
Rudy Giuliani: I believe Rudy had a flawed strategy right from the outset. The whole idea was that his name recognition and national numbers would turn him into the inevitable candidate and that he needn’t spend time in or worry about Iowa or New Hampshire because his national numbers would just automatically lift him up. If for some reason they didn’t, he would be a sure shot to win in Florida, and then proceed into the big states on February 5, where he would be automatically have the money on hand to be able to compete in the television markets of New York and California and umpteen other states.Mitt Romney: Romney, interestingly, had the exact opposite strategy of Rudy: to spend a lot of money in the early states and build a compelling lead, so he’d roll in Iowa and New Hampshire, and then carry that momentum with him. And for a while it looked like that was working. He can still win the nomination. I suspect he will end up doing well in Iowa and he continues to lead in New Hampshire and is among the leaders in South Carolina and Florida. What he did not count on was Mike Huckabee.

Mike Huckabee: In addition to Huckabee’s numbers going up dramatically in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida, we’ve also seen a dramatic decrease in the numbers of undecideds among Republicans. Translated: Many conservatives have told us they were unhappy with the field of candidates and were looking for a conservative leader and winner. Frankly, they hadn’t considered Huckabee because he just didn’t look like he had a chance. You combine his strong numbers with conservatives and respectable showing among independents and moderates, because he appears to be so affable and rational, and the Republicans right now are experiencing a Mike Huckabee “boomlet.”

John McCain: Talk about a little boomlet. John McCain seems to be getting his now, too. His candidacy bottomed out several months ago for a number of reasons, including internal campaign disputes and overspending, as well as a redefinition of McCain that undefined the John McCain of 2000: the war hero, the maverick, the straight-talker. But for those Republicans who want to believe that the surge in Iraq is working, that issue is less on the table, no longer hurting McCain, and he’s very much back to being the maverick warrior.

Fred Thompson: I’ve never seen the point of his candidacy. I still don’t get it. There are some who suggest that he’s caught some fire and he could come in second or third place in Iowa, as Huckabee or Romney fades. But right now, his candidacy has all the qualities of Baltic Avenue in a Republican sea of St. Charles Places.

Ron Paul: He’s going to do better than anyone expects. Look to Paul to climb into the double-digits in Iowa. Why? He’s different, he stands out. He’s against the war and he has the one in four Republicans who oppose the war all to himself. Libertarianism is hot, especially among free-market Republicans and 20-somethings. And he’s an appealing sort of father figure. He’s his own brand. All he needs to do is beat a couple of big names in Iowa, then New Hampshire is friendlier territory. After all, the state motto is “Live Free or Die.”

Newsmax

I agree with most of this.  I think any one of the first four, Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, or McCain could end up walking away with the nomination.  I don’t think Thompson is going to pull it off.  I also agree that I think Ron Paul will do better than expected, but more than likely not enough to actually capture the nomination.