McCain Dominates Super Tuesday Polls
Written by Sam on January 31st, 2008
This is going to be a blowout. It’s not even close.
Georgia
- McCain - 35%
- Huckabee - 24%
- Romney - 24%
- Paul - 5%
Tennessee
- McCain - 33%
- Huckabee - 25%
- Romney - 18%
- Paul - 9%
California (Giuliani supporters will likely gravitate to McCain)
- McCain - 32%
- Romney - 28%
Giuliani - 14%- Huckabee - 11%
- Paul - 5%
Illinois
- McCain - 34%
- Romney - 26%
- Huckabee - 16%
- Paul - 10%
Minnesota (Giuliani supporters will likely gravitate to McCain)
- McCain - 41%
- Huckabee - 22%
- Romney - 17%
Giuliani - 6%- Paul - 5%
31
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If McCain wins - God help us.
Might as well just give the election to Clinton.
The true conservatives will simply vote with thier feet.
McCain cannot win without us. He knows this, but I believe he would rather have a democrat in the office than a concervative.
D. Alo
Systems analyst
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I do not get this “true conservatives will vote with their feet” nonsense. The writing is on the wall: McCain will probably win no matter if he has the “true conservative” vote or not because he is already crushing Clinton and Obama in the polls with nearly 85 percent of Republicans supporting him and independents going to him. In fact, McCain right now has a larger percentage of registered Republicans based on polling than Bush did in 2000 or 2004.
Be like a subborn child and talk your toy away since you cannot play the game, but remember you will look like a fool when McCain plays the game and wins without you.
31
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Which debate would you rather see?
Scenario #1
Clinton v McCain
Moderator: Senator McCain, Senator Clinton, Former President Clinton recently stated that we may have to slow the economy down to fight global warming, do you agree with his assessment…Senator Clinton you first.
Clinton: You know I’m the one up here and not my husband but let me say this…I have a 35 year track record of public service and that includes environmental protection. We can have economic growth and environmental responsibility hand in hand. Senator McCain and I are actually in agreement on this issue. Senator McCain and I both voted to protect the pristine land and caribou by voting against drilling in ANWR. I admire Senator McCain for recognizing climate change though I recognized it first and I think the McCain-Libermann bill is a good first step.
Moderator: Senator McCain.
McCain: I thank my good friend Hillary for her support of the bill. I think what President Clinton meant was that we cannot grow our economy without thinking of the impact on the enviornment.
But the bigger issue here is that I was a POW…I’ve lead…I have been a leader all my life. I can lead us on the environment.
Scenario #2
Moderator: Governor Romney, Senator Clinton, Former President Clinton recently stated that we may have to slow the economy down to fight global warming, do you agree with his assessment…Senator Clinton you first.
Clinton: You know I’m the one up here and not my husband but let me say this…I have a 35 year track record of public service and that includes environmental protection. We can have economic growth and environmental responsibility hand in hand. I voted to protect the pristine land and caribou by voting against drilling in ANWR which Governor Romney supports. I have worked across the aisle with Senator McCain to support the McCain-Libermann bill as a good first step.
Moderator: Governor Romney?
Romney: Let me first say, that in the face of an economic downturn, for a former President to suggest we need to in any way slow down our economy is simply irresponsible. *pause for applause*
Look, we all want to protect the environment and we all want to fight pollution, but we also need to have the energy to power our economy and to lead us to economic growth. Preventing the drilling of oil may sound like a good idea, but there are real world consequences to doing that. It means more reliance on purchasing oil from other nations…many of which mean us harm.
I know how to balance the concerns about the environment against economic realities. I’ve been in the private sector as a business owner my whole life. I know how the economy works.
Which one do you want to see?
31
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“Because he is already crushing Clinton and Obama in the polls with nearly 85 percent of Republicans supporting him and independents going to him. In fact, McCain right now has a larger percentage of registered Republicans based on polling than Bush did in 2000 or 2004.”
You do realize that polling nationally for the general election at this stage is completely and utterly meaningless right? I would wager that up to 50% of the voters have no idea about Romney at all right now…may have heard the name and even know he’s a Mormon but could probably not even tell you what party he is in.
You also realize that three months ago the polls had Guiliani beating all Republicans by 10 points or more and had him beating Clinton by a few points (last Guiliani v Clinton poll was 38 to 51).
Citing polling data as a reason for voting for someone is so ridiculous and short-sighted as to be laughable. Dole was beating Clinton, Bush was beating Clinton by 15 points and Kerry was beating Bush in January of all those election years….completely useless.
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Watch for the following states over the weekend:
Georgia, Illinois, Colorado, California and Missouri…I suspect you will see the Hucksterbee nose dive in all and Romney may just surge at the end here….I’m not conceding the party to the liberals yet….
31
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I agree that it’s too early to seriously consider national polls showing how the possible GOP nominee would stack up against the possible Democrat nominee. There’s too much flux this year in the electorate — opinions of the candidates are changing too rapidly.
Be wary of anyone spouting the conventional wisdom — because it can change on the hour.
Also, I heard recently that some of the polls are trying to include cell phone users. I wonder if this has been effective and if it has shown a difference in the forecasts.
1
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A lot of the reason why Republicans are voting for McCain is that McCain is openly lying to them about his reasons for opposing the Bush tax cuts, his support for amnesty for illegals, Mitt Romney’s position on withdrawing from Iraq, etc.
If Republicans reward him for this, we’ll forfeit any claim we have to being the party of morality. Even setting aside the fact that the Republicans will be nominating someone who’s worse on family values than the Democrats. (Or have we forgotten how McCain slept around during his first marriage?)
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Finally, you answer my question, albeit in a different thread. So your problem is NOT that people are allowed to vote for a different candidate than you vote for. Your problem is with McCain, for running too good of a campaign.
Everyone in politics distorts their own and other people’s records to their advantage. Get used to it.
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Sorry…won’t “get used to it”….I have a feeling that what Zell Miller said about the Democrats “I didn’t leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left me” may be on the horizon for many, many Republicans.
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Publius, it’s rare indeed that I even consider, let alone answer, your questions, and that comment was not such an occasion.
In any event, no one distorts or lies as much or as thoroughly or as consistently as McCain does (no, not even the Huckster)–yet that’s only part of my opposition to McCain. My biggest problems with McCain are that he’s a bad person (a liar, a demagogue, and the most intemperate man in the history of American politics) and an anti-conservative (based on his record).
If you think lying is tantamount to–or even part of–running a good campaign, then thank you for once again vindicating my repeated assertions that you’re stupid.
Just so I remember to attack McCain some more, as to lying… The worst of many such offenses are his having lied at that last debate about (1) his reasons for opposing the Bush tax cuts, and (2) Romney’s views on withdrawal–even AFTER being called out by every newspaper, news network, and thinking person in America for lying, and even AFTER being called out at that debate for lying.
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Publius… I think Alan has a fundamental issue with the fact that his understanding of politics is not a majority view even within the Republican Party. While the anti-McCain people can claim the anti-McCain sentiment is huge, they cannot deny the fact that McCain has now won a closed primary in a generally Republican state and that he consistently polls as the second choice of the majority of supporters of every other candidate. People might not think McCain is great, but clearly a vast majority of Republicans have something for this guy since he is their first or second preference. If he was such an afront to the Republican cause, he would not have such broad support. By their standards, Reagan might be an afront if he was running today as the pro-immigration, ok with gay rights, cut taxes but raise them a little afterwards, etc candidate.
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Alan –
I normally don’t respond to explicit personal attacks, but I’ll challenge you to any objective intelligence test. You’ll score at least two standard deviations below me, I promise you.
What did you get on the GRE or the LSAT, for example?
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Publius, you’re right, you normally don’t respond to explicit personal attacks - you’re usually the one doing the personal attacking, after all.
Bringing up the utterly pointless “I’m smarter than you, let’s compare scores!” meme again, eh?
Man, you never get outside do you?
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Pubes,
What is your deal with your IQ obsession? This is a political website, not a single person here cares. Plus, you never know when a genius, like myself, is lurking and laughing at your poor self-image.
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Listen guys. The GOP is so fragmented right now. I’m a Tennessee Democrat sneaking in here and giving ya’ll some advice.
I don’t know why you don’t consider McCain conservative. Under the true Republican mantra of fiscal conservatism-definitely. Definitely on right to life.
I suggest get the nominating process over with. Your basically left with two choices. One is McCain will win the general election with a lot of crossover moderate and conservative democrats along with the GOP. The Democrats will still gain in the Congress because of the economy-just the way it is.
Or, the GOP can nominate someone else. No crossover vote, a lot less independent vote. A Democratic President and a Democratic Congress.
McCain reaches across the aisle. Something a lot of people in both parties need to do. I guess that’s why the GOP doesn’t like him. He’ll stick his hand out.
2
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Vandy — You’re right, of course, but the people who run this blog can’t quite wrap their heads around the reality that the proportion of Americans who are moderate and don’t have heart attacks over nonsense like immigration far exceeds the proportion of Americans like … well, like the people who run this blog. I get the sense that their ego and their id never split properly.
And there are still Democrats in Tennessee? I figured you all got lynched along with Harold Ford in 2006.
2
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“Nonsense like immigration”
Really? The VAST majority of Americans, not just conservatives or Republicans, opposed the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill. It wasn’t so much of conservatives fighting the liberals as it was American citizens fighting BOTH parties, flooding the Senate phones so much that they shut down the switchboard on the day of the cloture vote on the bill.
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Yet McCain continues to win, despite his repeated and very public support of this bill. Face it — this issue is a nonstarter; people don’t care anymore.
Nice try turning it into the gay marriage of 2008. The timing was off.
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I consider myself more of a Libertarian in ideals than a Republican, yet I still plan on voting for John McCain on Super Tuesday. I begged my parents as an 11 year old child not to vote for Perot in essence giving Clinton the White House without a majority of the vote (a vote for Perot being a vote against Bush).
Why is it that so many “conservatives” trust the John Kerry of the Republican party (Mitt Romney)? Sure he looks presidential, has a lot of money, and he knows what to say to get the Republican sheep in search of a “true” conservative to vote for him. Sorry, but any Republican that wins in Massachusetts, the state that consistently votes for Ted Kennedy and John Kerry is not a true conservative.
At least with McCain whether you agree with his views or not, many of which I do, you pretty much know where he stands on the issues. With Romney you would have a president who checks the polls daily to see how whether or not to veto a bill from Congress. I’m sorry, you’d have a nominee who would check the polls…because Hillary would be the one who gets elected.
Anyone remember how Jimmy Carter got elected? The Republican establishment didn’t like the “maverick” Ronald Reagen and voted in the establishment candidate Gerald Ford. Don’t let it happen again.
2
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Gay marriage didn’t elicit the vast majority of Americans getting steamed at Congress and shutting down the Senate switchboard, there is no comparison. Nice try though.
McCain continues to win with pluralities amongst what was very crowded field.
Is he likely to be the nomiinee? Sure. That doesn’t mean that majority of conservatives (and dare I say Republicans) don’t care about border enforcement given the electoral situation I just explained to you.
You can say that a McCain nomination means whatever you want it to mean. But you can’t make up nonsense out of whole cloth when history clearly points otherwise.
2
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“Why is it that so many “conservatives” trust the John Kerry of the Republican party (Mitt Romney)?”
———————————————————————–
Great question, Danny. I never jumped on the Romney bandwagon.
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I’m voting on Tuesday, but I have a question regarding Romney.
Romney is supposedly the “true conservative.” I agree that his views and proposed policies are much more conservative than McCain. However, if he is a true conservative, how did he get elected governor of one of the most liberal states in the nation, Massachusetts? Would this not suggest, that his platform and policies when running for governor were much more liberal? I believe that about 90% of registered voters in MA are registered democrats. This indicates that many liberals supported him when he ran for governor.
Thanks for any feedback.
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I don’t understand the heartburn of core conservatives over McCain. The American people time after time have said they want the two parties to work TOGETHER to pass good legislation. McCain has an outstanding track record of reaching across the aisle. He’s admitted his priorities for solving the illegal immigration issue were mis-sequenced and out-of-step with mainstream America and has promised to adjust those priorities accordingly. The guy is for strong military - McCain’s been a supporter of the war since day one and kept telling the Bush administration they needed more “boots on the ground” Finally, they dumped Rumsfeld and listened to that advice and IT WORKED. The man’s a patriot, honorable. I’m a registered independent and out of the current crop, he is the ONLY candidate I will be proud to call MY President.
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Oh, and I forgot to add that he’s been warning about spending since 2003 - “This congress and administration is spending money like a drunken sailor on shore leave.” It’s the idealogs in the Republican party who are completely out-of-step with mainstream America. I don’t agree with EVERYTHING McCain represents or fails to give adequate focus. I have a daughter with type I diabetes so health care is definitely a key concern I have and McCain isn’t giving the health care crisis enough emphasis. However, I TRUST this man and that’s why more Americans will vote for him over an Obama or Clinton or even a Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton (it’s coming people, that’s why their making nice these days). Even though Clinton and Obama place more emphasis on one of my core issues, I still TRUST John McCain and I WILL vote for him. I would never vote for Mitt Romney. There’s nothing wrong with the Mormon faith but I can’t vote for someone who is beholding to another human who claims to have a higher authority. No way!
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Mark Taylor, I agree with you. I trust him more than Romney or Huckabee.