A split convention?
Written by Alex on February 6th, 2008It looks very much like we’re heading toward one, though not on the Republican side.
According to a number of estimates, either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would have to win over 75% of the remaining delegates for the race to be decided by the end of the primaries. This is simply not going to happen.
The race on the Democratic side will come down to the superdelegates - Congressmen, Senators, Governors, former Presidents and party chairmen, etc.
Thus, it’s entirely possible that we will not know who the Democratic nominee will be until August.
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How can that possibly be right? There have bee very few delegates pledged to someone other than Obama or Hillary (according to CNN, 26 have been pledged to Edwards). Hillary has a bit better than half of the rest of the delegates (845 to 765). Either there are a LOT of uncommitted delegates or it is just really close and will be determined late in the calendar.
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For a candidate to win the Democratic nomination, excluding superdelegates, they would have to win over 60% of the delegates in the primaries.