Will Toomey Run for Senate?
Written by Sam on April 8th, 2008
Toomey’s Senate bid would be a rerun of his 2004 Republican primary challenge to incumbent Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, to whom he lost narrowly, 50.8 percent to 49.2 percent. In that campaign, Toomey characterized Specter as a free spender but came up short as the incumbent received endorsements from President Bush, then near the height of his popularity, and then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), a beloved figure among social conservatives. In a recent phone interview, Toomey said: “I have not made a decision, but it is something I intend to give very serous thought to after the election this year.” Toomey is keeping his political options open, as he is also considering a 2010 gubernatorial bid.
That 2004 primary was one of the most depressing nights of my life. To come all that way and lose by such a slim margin.
Unless Specter retires I find it unlikely that Toomey will run for the U.S. Senate again. I’m more inclined to see him run for governor of Pennsylvania, which the state will sorely need after eight years of Ed Rendell. Specter will be 80 years old in 2010 and he did claim in 2004 that this would be his last term, but I never believed that and as long as he is still in good health you can count on Snarlin’ Arlen to make another go for it.
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How often does one go from losing a primary Senate election to winning the governorship?
I’m no fan of Rendell, but generally someone has to have some sort of experience before going for the highest state-level political office.
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Some sort of experience? Does being a congressman not count as experience?
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That it does… whoops. My bad.
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Not that I’m a fan of either Specter or Toomey, but from watching their 2004 primary race it looked like the reason that Specter was able to narrowly win was because the GOP establishment rallied around him. In 2010 Bush won’t be around to campaign for him, and many of Specter’s caucus are still pissed that he gave Senator Craig a loophole to escape his promised resignation. Arlen hasn’t been overly cooperative with party leadership since 2004. Don’t bet on much establishment support next time. If Specter doesn’t run again, Toomey may have to contend with primary opposition like Tom Ridge, who would get loads of Washington support.
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Personally, I think Toomey would get destroyed in a Pennsylvania election.
The only thing that is conservative about Pennsylvania, at least that I can ascertain, is that there is a large amount of social conservative voters. I don’t think there is some sort of large fiscal-conservative base in Pennsylvania outside of GOP primary voters for Toomey to rely on.
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For better or worse social conservatives would have been engough to elect Toomey in 2004. They elected Santorum twice. It is true that social conservatives outside the GOP base in PA are more often than not economically liberal. More often than not they are blue collar union members.
Neverthess, had Toomey defeated Specter in the primary he would have easily defeated Hoffel in the general election. To give you an idea how pathetic Hoffel is the fact that Specter looked presidential when debating him.