29 Apr
Larry Kudlow has a great post at the Corner explaining why much of the economic hardship we are currently facing is self-inflicted.
Whether it’s energy, wheat, grain, corn, or whatever, since these raw materials are priced in dollars on global markets, a strong greenback will reduce commodity prices. And that, in turn, will lower both consumer and producer inflation. This would help corporate profits and would boost the purchasing power of wages.
In other words, a strong dollar would relieve gas prices and boost the economy. But so far as I know, the president never mentioned the dollar. And I don’t think any of the media people asked him about it.
Right now Mr. Bush should order his Treasury Secretary to appreciate the greenback and work with the G7 for concerted action that would send a strong signal to commodity and currency traders that they better close their short positions on the dollar and stop speculating on higher and higher commodity prices. Mr. Bush himself should adopt new rhetoric on a strong dollar. He should make it unambiguous.
Both Hank Paulson and Bush have beaten the drum loud and long on a “strong dollar” policy. Unfortunately that is all they have done and the US peso is now worth only $1.06 Australian, .5 Pound Sterling, $1.01 Canadian (!), .64 Euro, 103.4 Yen, and 1.03 Swiss Francs! This is beyond nuts it is only a course steered by someone with nothing left to lose. The reason we have crashed the value of the dollar is because that is the only way of keeping our ballooning national debt from taking away higher percentages of our GDP.
Now we are left with a weak US peso, inflation expectations of 6.8%, exploding food and fuel prices, an expanding national debt and greater federal spending than ever before. This is not how I expected the Bush years to end.
12 Responses for "The US Peso"
Good post Mike.
Honestly, I expected the Bush second term to end this way because of the fiscal insanity of the first term. We need an immediate cut in government spending of around 10 percent to bring us into surplus with a spending freeze enacted for the next two years after that. Fiscal austerity should be the phrase of the day if we are going to end this train wreck.
Mike… your (!) by the Canadian rate of exchange shows you know little history about the Canadian US rate of exchange history. Basically until the 1970s, the Canadian Dollar almost always retained parity with the US Dollar or was worth more. Canada was a model of fiscal restraint for 30 years after the US went nuts with the New Deal. It was not until the 1960s with Pearson and Trudeau that Canada went off the deep end. Now it appears they might be the fiscally sane ones again. Their tax rates are slightly higher on individuals and families, but their corporate rate is significantly lower and is scheduled to continue falling to the point where it wll be half the US rate. Did I mention they also are running a balanced budget for over a decade?
“Mike… your (!) by the Canadian rate of exchange shows you know little history about the Canadian US rate of exchange history.”
I wasn’t commenting on any historical anomaly in the exchange rate as you assumed but rather the relative weakness and size of the current Canadian economy relative to our own. There is absolutely no reason for the loonie and the greenback to be at or near parity.
BTW, I am a big fan of Harper and what he is trying to accomplish up there.
Good to hear your rationale on the (!). I thought it might be a typical incident of Canada bashing so common in our country.
Harper is more of a conservative than Bush when it comes to fiscal matters any day of the week. Even the last two Liberal Prime Ministers, Chrietian and Martin, kept government spending under control when compared to Bush.
Our corporate tax rate is the 2nd Highest in the world. Only Japan squeeks out ahead of us.
Actually when you include most state’s corporate rates we beat out Japan as well. And we wonder why we are losing jobs overseas . . .
Mike! Its because of George Bush. Helloooo!
Well 24 of our states are higher than Japan but our average is slightly lower.
The weaker dollar is making U.S. exports stronger. The question I might ask is whether this economy has more to gain with stronger exports or with lower gas/commodity and import prices.
Kudlow’s the economist here, but I dunno.
Yes, the weaker dollar makes American goods more attractive on the market, and may slightly help our trade balance.
I’m well aware that a strong/weak dollar is not a purely good-or-bad issue.
But I think on the whole, a falling dollar is not good for the United States. Part of the rise in crude oil prices is because with the falling dollar, investors see oil as basically an alternate currency and thus invest in it. Also, a weak dollar is not good for our international economic standing since our dollar is supposed to be the default currency for much of international business and finance.
First, the weak dollar is bad all around. The trade imbalance is minor compared to the tremendous amount of damage done in other areas. Second, people are not seeing oil as a good investment due to the dollar, rather the price of oil is quoted in dollars, and therefore the weaker it is, the higher the price goes. Same for all commodities: iron, gold, steel, fertilizer, etc.
We are spitting out T-bills now hand over fist to cover our ballooning debt, partially due to the fact that our dollar in in the crapper. Unfortunately, this is a reflection of the idiotic fiscal policies of the Bush administration and those before him.
The weak dollar is such an issue that the G8 is considering stepping in to shore it up. We should all be worried about this, because our enemies hold a substantial amount of our debt, and if they decide they want to crash our currency, all they have to do is pick up the phone and send our piles of T-bills out the the market.
Talking about T-Bills, what if China sold them off…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/09/AR2005090902025.html
We would sink very, very fast….
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