4 May
State Representative Don Cazayoux defeated a former state legislator in Louisiana’s Sixth Congressional District last night, marking the second time in two months that Democrats have won a special election seat previously held by Republicans. Cazayoux took 49% of the vote to newspaper publisher and longtime political hand Woody Jenkins’ 46%.Cazayoux won Baton Rouge, the southern and western suburbs and most of West Feliciana and St. Helena Parishes, as well as the precincts surrounding Lake Pontchartrain. Jenkins took more traditionally Republican territory south and east of the city, as well as most of Livingston Parish. The two candidates split East Feliciana Parish, north of Baton Rouge along the Mississippi border.The special election win marks the first time in three decades since 1975 that a Democrat will represent the district, based around Baton Rouge and east to Livingston Parish, near the northwest shores of Lake Pontchartrain. More importantly, Cazayoux’s win offers further evidence that Republicans may face another Congressional landscape as difficult as the 2006 election, when the GOP lost thirty seats and the majority. A CBS News/New York Times poll out this week suggested 50% of Americans prefered a generic Democratic candidate for Congress, while just 32% prefered the Republican contender.
Another seat that should not have been lost. I wonder how many more seats have to be lost before the party will get its act straight.
6 Responses for "Republicans Lose Another Congressional Seat"
I take this as a sign of the partying trying to win votes in the wrong areas. Trying to pander to social conservatives when they obviously support populist economic policies shows the ongoing fallacy of the values voters equal fiscal conservatives too mentality. When you throw a social conservative economic populist against a social conservativ economic conservative, you are going to get populists elected in these districts.
Last night I did a study on the vote there in LA-6.
http://thepinkflamingo.blogharbor.com/blog/_archives/2008/5/4/3675154.html
I don’t think this is a cause for GOP hand-wringing as much as it is a case for better candidate vetting. Jenkins is a flawed candidate at best. if I were in that district, I would not have voted for him, and I’m practically a yellow cat Republican
SJR
The Pink Flamingo
Personally, I think the GOP should take this - at least in part - as a sign that Americans will not be fooled with shallow negative ad campaigns. The GOP had run ads likening Cazayoux to Obama and Pelosi. The voters didn’t fall for it. In fact, it may have simply mobilized Obama’s fanbase to show up to the polls to make a statement defending Obama by proxy.
I don’t know much about Jenkins, but a few things are that I know are he’s the most conservative out of the other Republicans that ran for that primary in LA6. CFG endorsed him which was good hope on the economic side, and it’s safe to say he would be conservative on social issues, since it’s the Southeast.
Being tough on immigration is not a loser issue (not “looser” either, please use the spell check more often Pink Flamingo) in evidence of what happened last year in the immigration debate. A vast majority of Americans support having a border fence up, so it’s a safe issue to stand for (as long as you are not anti-Mexican or anti-”legal immigration”, Jenkins was not both). Being conservative is not a crime. Americans are sick and tired of open borders non-sense and I am as well.
The real problem is that these early retirements tend to put the incumbent party at more of a disadvantage and less voters usually turn out for a special election (see IL-14 for Jim Oberweis). I’m not sure why people would vote for third party “me-to” candidates in representative elections (except in very extreme circumstances and Jenkins does not come close to them), they always lose! The voters who didn’t vote deserve the blame for this.
It’s not quite a populist vs. conservative issue (although red districts can differ in ways), the Republicans in the primary clearly choose Jenkins as the go-to guy. That was a smart choice. Smaller government is a winner issue for the Republicans these days.
Let’s see how the Nov ‘08 election for this district will pan out.
Jason… I do not know if I would call this district red per se or just socially conservative. If this district was truly red, it would have picked the fiscal conservative, but alas they picked the populist social conservative. The Republican Party made its bed with people who are not fiscal conservatives and will jump ship as soon as the Democrats offer a populist option that has the same values as them. The consequences of this moronic choice will be faced by the party for years to come.
I do not know if I would call this district red per se or just socially conservative.
Ryan, don’t you think socially conservative *is* red? I mean, there are those of us old-school purists who can continue to insist on what the party is (or at least what it is supposed to be), but we’ve now seen two decades of social conservative infiltration into every echelon of party leadership. I’m afraid it’s clear that the hijack has succeeded and this new incarnation of the party *is* the party - at least for now.
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