Give Them Amnesty and They Will Come
Written by Sam on June 7th, 2008Remember last summer when the American people manage to shut down the switchboards on Capitol Hill by flooding them with phone calls to stop the George Bush shamnesty? Remember how the powers that be in the GOP kept telling us we were wrong and that if we legalize the illegals under a Republican president they’ll vote Republican? Of course, we knew they were wrong.
A new Gallup poll just came out showing Barack Obama getting 62% of the Latino vote while McCain garners only 29%. Now isn’t that interesting? Aside from Bush, who other than John McCain was the biggest face in this push for legalization? According to the logic of Bush, McCain, and Martinez and others shouldn’t this poll be the other way around? McCain was out there lobbying hard for them after all.
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Interesting…this does not bode well for McCain. Obama had been terribly weak with Latino voters all primary season, and with McCain’s “we are all God’s children” immigration rhetoric, I honestly thought this was a demographic McCain was going to swing. And he’s going to need to swing it in order to keep Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada from going blue.
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Interesting considering the Republicans got 40% of the Latino vote in 2004. From hispanics I have talked to, the Republican brand regardless of who represents it is now toxic. Thanks to those who fought immigration reform, the Republican Party has committed demographic suicide seeing Latinos are the fastest growing group among American citizens let alone immigrants.
I find this to be ironic considering Ronald Reagan supported an amnesty that made the one supported by McCain look conservative.
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Nice. The GOP just sucks.
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I’d take major issue with this poll. No way in hell! Senator McCain has one of the highest candidate favorability ratings of any national candidate. And his record serving the Hispanic community of Arizona is strong. In fact, I believe he won about 75% of the Hispanic vote in his last election.
That’s not to mention Obama’s problems with Hispanics in the Democratic primary. Those problems cannot be papered over quickly. Obama’s record is out-of-line with most Hispanic voters. By large margins, Hispanics are pro-life, pro-family, and pro-small business. Obama’s the most liberal candidate in U.S. history. These two facts don’t meld.
I think McCain will win about 40-45% of the Hispanic vote, matching W.’s 2004 44% highmark. In addition, he will win Florida, buoyed by his strength among Cuban-Americans. (Remember the Florida GOP primary, where McCain did very well among the Hispanic population). Obama’s so soft on Cuban policy (along with every other foreign policy issue), it’s a joke and insult to humanity. McCain will also do well in Arizona (obviously) and key Hispanic constituencies in nearby Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.
Above all, McCain has the right message for Hispanic-Americans: The GOP is the party of opportunity. By reaching out to the Hispanic community, McCain has built a special relationship and will prosper in the general election. The GOP writ-large should take heed of his approach.
And enough with the doom-mongering already! Conservatism will triumph. Just get out there and start fighting. Enough with the sob stories. This is the future of the country we’re talking about. Obama has already promised he will “transform” this country, if elected. This should scare the hell out of any freedom-loving American!!
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John, there’s no doubt that McCain will win Florida, and I agree that as Barack’s abortion record gets more publicity he’ll lose support among Catholics.
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Obama should scare the hell out of every freedom-loving American? How can a freedom-loving American vote for John McCain, the First Amendment’s Public Enemy Number One? The man who talks about “greedy” people who “perhaps deserve to be punished?” (I await with interest the introduction of the bill McCain apparently wants that would criminalize greed. Would it make him a criminal, too, since he married for money to jumpstart his political career?)
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John you are probably correct in your assessment of this poll considering McCain’s performance in primaries with a higher percentage of Latino voters, but we must wonder if the policy by some in the Republican Party towards immigration, which almost exclusively focuses on Hispanic illegal immigration and not illegal immigration as a whole, is hurting the party. The recent polling from Texas that has John Cornyn with less than a 10 percent lead of his Democratic challenger probably should raise some alarm bells.
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Wait a minute Alan. I have no issues with your voluminous (and usually appropriate) attacks on St. John’s policies. It’s your right and privilege to take issue with anything he says or votes for.
But unless you can read minds and have proof that McCain married his wife simply out of political expediency, I suggest you drop that line of attack very quickly. Such vitriol crosses into a realm of personal attack that cheapens your otherwise cogent and needed arguments.
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Indeed, Alan. It’s much simpler just to point out that he courted a woman half his age while he was married to someone else. I suppose there’s no need to fabricate McCain’s transgressions when there are so many authentic ones from which to choose.
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Anyhow, to get back to the topic of the thread.
As far as whether the Gallup poll could possibly be accurate…an LA Times poll ten days ago found that California Latino voters split for Obama over McCain 62-38.
I can’t find any other recent polls regarding the demographic.
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What Ryan and others seem to forget is that Latino voters didn’t shift Republican after the 1986 amnesty. There’s no reason to think that perceptions of Republican bigotry are responsible for the lack of Hispanic support for the GOP today. They wouldn’t support Republicans anyway. There’s no reason to think that caving into the McCain/Kyl/Grahamnesty crowd would’ve loosened the Democrats’ grip on the Hispanic vote. It didn’t work in 1986; there’s no reason to think it would’ve worked in our own day.
Hispanics are not natural Republican voters. Yes, they’re socially conservative, but they’re not economically conservative. Blacks, like Hispanics, are very socially conservative but also economically liberal. And Hispanics, like blacks, vote based on economic issues rather than social issues. Neither group is clamoring for deregulation, the repeal of the minimum wage, the repeal of capital gains taxes, or the other pet causes of economic conservatism.
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Alan… I did not say that the 1986 bill shifted voting patterns, but I claimed the stance of some in the Republican Party is hurting us with a portion of the electorate we did hold a good portion of the vote among for years. We more or less have got 40 percent of the Hispanic vote for decades. This is a good margin and its even higher among second generation Hispanic historically speaking. Now through an anti-immigration policy that comes off as highly bigoted since it appears those calling for stricter controls are exclusively targeting Hispanics, should we be shocked that Hispanics flee the party?
I would suspect the polling Barbara mentioned is more realistic and its close to what happened in 2004.
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According to the exit polls, Bush won 35% of Hispanics in 2000, and 40% in 2004, the largest percentage ever for a Republican Presidential candidate. They made up 8% of the electorate nationwide. Clinton carried 72% in 1996, and in 2006 70% voted for the Democratic mid-term candidates.
It’s a bit of a stretch to say “40% of the Hispanic vote for decades.” We’ve only just recently reached the 40% mark, and we don’t know if we can hold the ground. McCain’s campaign has said they’re hoping for 40%.