Electoral Analysis for Pennsylvania
Thursday, August 7th, 2008Jay Cost at realclearpolitics has a nice, in-depth analysis of voting data in PA over the last 40 years. Of particlular interest are the purple “swing” regions shown below, which are balanced in terms of partisanship. The east is trending democrat, the west, republican. I consider PA my adopted home state, and have always believed that Obama will have to defend this state vigorously, costing him valuable time and money. Most polls currently show Obama leading PA by the same margin he maintains nationally. John Kerry won PA by only 2.5% in 2004. Keep an eye out for Obama slipping here, as a loss in PA would render an Obama presidency nearly impossible.
