What the Dayton, Ohio announcement tells us
Written by Jack Burden on August 18th, 2008Apparently the rumors from this morning are true, McCain will announce his VP selection in Dayton, Ohio on August 29th, the day after Obama accepts the Democratic nomination.
The date isn’t much of a surprise, considering there’s all of three days between the two conventions. But the location may tell us something.
The speculation is all about Romney and Pawlenty. I don’t think its Romney for one main reason. If McCain was choosing Romney the announcement would be in Michigan. No question. Its Romney’s home state, his biggest win from the primaries, and Michigan is probably the best shot McCain has other than New Hampshire of picking off a blue state from 2004.
So, the Dayton announcement means its not Romney. Ridge is likely out too, an announcement of him would almost certainly be in Pennsylvania. Likewise an Eric Cantor announcement in Virginia. What about Pawlenty?
Well, the convention itself is in St. Paul, so there isn’t much reason to do the announcement in Minnesota as well. Ohio is the most important swing state. Its a conventional location to announce a conventional choice, and Pawlenty is the conventional choice, the frontrunner for the VP nod from the beginning.
It could also be Lieberman. He’s already a national figure, and he’s not tremendously popular in his home state of Connecticut.
Or it could be one of the two oft-cited former Ohio congressmen who are on multiple short lists for VP: Rob Portman and John Kasich. Most of the speculation has been around Portman, but Kasich has gotten a bit of attention as well. An Ohio announcement makes sense with an Ohioan on the ballot.
So, my prediction is: it will either be Pawlenty, Portman, or Kasich.
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Three people is not really a prediction.
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Between them, my gut is it will be Tim Pawlenty.
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I’ve been away from the news for a while. Why is Charlie Crist not a name we hear in this speculation anymore?
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Jack, I predicted Tim Pawlenty a while ago… jump on the bandwagon my friend.
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The only thing predictable about McCain is that you can’t necessarily predict what he’ll do, or when, or why. Anyone’s guess, but I’m hoping it’s Romney. He’s the one that will ignite the conservative base that McCain very much needs to decisively win in critical states like Michigan, Colorado, Utah and Minnesota. Romney won those states and numerous others, and only came in second in others because Huckabee was playing the spoiler. With his expertise on the economy, his popularity with the Republican base, and his executive experience, in my estimation he brings the most to the ticket for McCain. The one question mark is whether McCain is going to hold a grudge. I’m hoping he puts the country’s interests above that, and picks Romney. Plus, it’d stick in Huckabee’s snarky little craw. I’m a very conservative, evangelical Christian, bit I preferred Romney’s policies and demeanor, and I wasn’t the least bit bothered that he’s a Mormon. Huckabee, however, has been an embarrassment because of his religious bigotry toward Romney…what a poor witness that’s been. All in all, Romney is a real winner for McCain.
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If Rob Portman becomes VP then he must have the best press agent in the world. Did anyone ever know of his existance before VP speculation began?
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