Electoral College 2012
Written by Sam on September 14th, 20082010 will be here before we know it and that means it’s Census time and with the Census comes Congressional reapportionment and with Congressional reapportionment comes big changes in the awarding of electoral votes. Polidata did an analysis on population trends and projected some big gains for red states and some bad news for the blue ones. Bottom line, reds are gaining, blues are losing, significantly. Polidata is predicting the following changes in which states will gain vote and which will lose:
Gainers
Texas +4
Arizona +2
Florida +2
Georgia +1
Nevada +1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1
South Carolina +1
Utah +1
Losers
California -1
Illinois -1
Iowa -1
Louisiana -1
Massachusetts -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
Missouri -1
New Jersey -1
New York -2
Ohio -2
Pennsylvania -1
Yikes for the Dems! Of course, I am not obtuse enough to think this is cut and dry. The question to be asked is who is moving to these growing red states. While I believe most of them will remain solidly in the GOP column for the next election, there are two that could bite back at Republicans. They are Nevada and North Carolina.
Nevada is already swinging to the left ever so slowly with each passing year and as Bush barely won the state in 2004 this year’s polls look to be the same. By 2012 Nevada could be a Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, just within the Republicans’ grasp, but they can’t quite seal the deal. North Carolina has always been a Democrat dominated state at the state and local level, but generally votes Republican at the Federal level. However, this year Elizabeth Dole is struggling for reelection and it’s hard to tell exactly which way the state is leaning with the new influx of residents from mostly the Rust Belt area.
Additionally, as the southwest gains in Hispanic populations the Republicans will lose their advantage in those states if they do not address that issue.
Overall, I think the GOP can smile at these projections, but demographics are always changing. The Republican Party seems to have a habit of blowing a good thing once they get into power. Where they have a chance to show the electorate what real conservative ideals can do, they seem to squander it by succumbing to corruption and greed. Great examples of this are the once great Republican bastions of Illinois, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania. Today the parties in those states are dysfunctional at best and a broken shell of their former selves.
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PM
2010 will be the first time California ever lost an electoral vote.
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PM
I don’t want to be a cynical old coot and throw ice water on anybody, but this isn’t entirely positive. You’re missing the carpetbagger effect: The people who are moving to, say, Texas are moving from blue states, and most are liberals. They they vote liberal there, and turn the state a bluer shade of purple. Look at Virginia or New Hampshire. So while yes, red states are gaining in population, they’re gaining a larger liberal population.
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PM
Rightwingprof, how do you know most of the people moving there are left wingers?
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PM
I can’t speak for other states, but as a transplanted Yankee here in North Carolina, I did look at some of the numbers recently.
A slight majority of the northern transplants register Republican down here, but they’re most akin to “Rockefeller Republicans”, which is just New Yawker for “RINO”. They like low taxes, but they also like paved roads and government subsidized junk. They want good schools, but don’t think school choice is the answer.
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AM
I think this bodes well for the GOP in the future presidential elections.
BTW Texas isn’t about to become a shade of purple in the next decade at least. John McCain won Texas by 900,000 votes. Texas is one of the few states left that actually believes in a limited government.
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AM
Rightwingprof is correct. This is the reason that colorado is now in play.
And texas is certainly in play, especially with the GOP screwing up the immigration issue as bad as they are. 900,000 votes in a state with 24 million population is not much.