Looking at the 2010 Senate
Written by Sam on November 8th, 2008With what is going to be at least a 57-43 Senate for the Democrats these next two years, and quite possibly a 60-40 depending on the results of recounts in Alaska and Minnesota and the runoff in Georgia, Republicans have their work cut out for them in 2010 if they want to cut into that large majority and work towards winning back the chamber. It’s highly unlikely they’ll be be able to do it in one election cycle, but if they play their cards right in 2010 and again in 2012 it’s doable.
Of the 34 seats that will be up for reelection plenty of them won’t even be on the radar. I’ve listed the ones below that could possibly produce a contest depending on the opposing party’s candidate and possible retirements.
Democrat Held Seats
- Connecticut - Last year Chris Dodd sent a letter to the Federal Election Commission that he was no longer a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010 so that he could transfer campaign funds to his joke of a Presidential campaign. However, a Dodd spokesman at the time said, “It’s a legality that isn’t an indication of future plans.” Indeed, he can still run again and open a new Senatorial campaign account. For all intensive purposes, this is an unlikely opportunity for a GOP pick up, whether Dodd runs or not. The powers-that-be will most certainly try to tap Governor Jodi Rell to run. She’s an uber RINO, but there may be no other option in Connecticut. If Dodd runs the GOP can try and hit him with his ties to the collapse of the financial industry as well as the mortgage discount he was getting while other homeowners were being foreclosed upon. That may dent his successes a little bit, but I’m not holding my breath.
- California - Barbara Boxer is up in 2010. Rumors have already been circulating that Arnold may make a run against her. He said he has no plans to do so, but everyone says that in the beginning. Having Arnold in the Senate does not thrill me in the least, but I suppose he would be a better alternative to Boxer. Personally, I’d like to see Duncan Hunter run against her. I think he has the name recognition and the fund raising capability to mount a credible campaign against her. Nevertheless, this is another long shot, but not impossible.
- Maryland - Barbara Mikulski will be 73 in 2010. I suppose Michael Steele could try again. Honestly, I think he would have won in 2006 if the anti-Republican wave hadn’t swept across the country. If Mikulski doesn’t retire I doubt he’ll run against her. It would have to be an open seat. Steele would be awesome in the Senate.
- Hawaii - Daniel Inouye will be 86 years old in 2010. There is a high probability he could retire. If he does the obvious choice to run for the seat is Governor Linda Lingle. She could bring a decent challenge to the seat, but only if Inouye retires. If not, it’s a safe Dem race.
- Illinois - This is Barack Obama’s seat. Until we know who Blagojevich appoints to replace him we won’t be able to gauge the parameters of this one.
- Nevada - Harry Reid is up for reelection. Last I saw his approval ratings weren’t too great, but that was a while ago. Rumors were that Congressman John Porter may run, but he just lost reelection to the House. It could be a competitive race based on the political climate that year and who the Republican challenger is.
- Vermont - I only list this race in the case that Leahy decides to retire. He’ll be 70 and that’s about the median age in the Senate these days so I don’t count on this happening. If he does retire, however, Governor Jim Douglas would be the obvious choice to run and could make it competitive. That’s the only scenario.
Republican Held Seats
- Kansas - Sam Brownback will not seek reelection in 2010. This poses a problem in this very reliable Republican state because Governor Kathleen Sebelius is almost certain to make a run for this seat. Her challenge will put what is normally an ignored race on the radar.
- Arizona - Whether McCain retires or not, there’s going to be a stiff challenge from Governor Janet Napolitano who is very popular in Arizona and polling for this match up has already begun and it’s mixed. Some polls have McCain ahead and some Napolitano ahead. If McCain retires there are two good Republicans that either of which would be great candidates: Congressmen John Shadegg and Jeff Flake. With Napolitano on the ballot, this seat will be very difficult to defend, though.
- Florida - Mel Martinez is a Bush lackey. His last approval ratings I saw were in the toilet. This will be a tough seat to hang onto with him on the ballot in a swing state.
- Iowa - Grassley will be 77 in 2010. If he makes another run he should win easily. If he retires, then the seat is up for grabs.
- Kentucky - Jim Bunning barely won in 2004 which was a great year for the GOP. The right Democrat could mount a tough challenge against him in 2010.
- Louisiana - David Vitter would normally be safe, but I have no doubt that the DC Madame scandal will be resurrected and used against him.
- Missouri - Early polling shows Kit Bond ahead by a few points, some more than others depending on the potential challengers, but the race should lean slightly in his favor. He could be vulnerable by another Democrat wave, but three of those in a row are highly unlikely.
- New Hampshire - I think Judd Gregg is probably okay, but New Hampshire hasn’t been kind to Republicans in the last two elections so I don’t know how this will bode for him.
- North Carolina - After their recent gains in North Carolina the Democrats are going to throw everything they have at Richard Burr. Count on it. This will be one of the high profile races in 2010.
- Ohio - I would rank this right now as leaning in Voinovich’s favor, but Ohio is another swing state that has embraced the Democrats in the last two election cycles so it will again depend on the political climate at the time.
- Pennsylvania - Arlen Specter has already said he will seek reelection and as long as he is in good health I doubt he’ll change his mind. Specter won’t have a problem being reelected. If something happens to him in the mean time, he has had several bouts with Cancer, and he doesn’t run then this seat is up for grabs.
Once again it appears that the GOP will be defending more than it’s fair share of Senate seats in 2010. That is why it is vital that new leadership is sought and a uniting message is delivered across the country, otherwise these have the potential to go south just like the last two cycles, particularly if Obama is still as popular two years from now.
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If the Republicans are going to make gains, it would probably be at the state level with a good number of Democrat governors retiring in 2010.
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A lot can change is two years. Who knows what is and isn’t possible at this point, hell it could be worse by then!
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2010 will be the new 1994. We’ll pick up 5 seats in the Senate and 25-30 in the House.
Harry Reid will lose to Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki
Barbara Boxer’s numbers aren’t great, and she’ll lose to US Attorney Thomas O’Brien
Dodd will retire or fall to Connecticut’s Lt. Governor due to the Home-Loan scandal.
Jeff Flake will hold the Arizona seat.
Congressman Steve King will hold Grassley’s seat.
We may lose Martinez in Florida if he even runs for reelection. Let’s pray he doesn’t.
John Elway will beat Ken Salazar in Colorado.
If Mike Huckabee runs, he can win in Arkansas. I’d rather have his squishy self in the Senate than running for President.
Richie Farmer will replace Bunning in the Senate from Kentucky.
And Rudy Giuliani can beat Schumer if he runs.
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I seriously doubt Voinivich will face a tough re-election. He can’t be pegged a Bush clone and is still extremely popular in Ohio.
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Voinivich is a shoe-in.
One way to get the Democrats off their game in Ohio would be to focus on incumbent Governor Strickland.
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REPUBLICAN HELD SEATS:
Kansas — Moran is running for the U.S. Senate here in Kansas and rumors indicate Sebelius is headed to DC as Commerce Secretary.
Florida — Hopefully Mel Martinez will not run and Jeb Bush will run in his place. I dont think Jeb is done yet and we need him in the Senate; plus he’d be a shoo in.
North Carolina — I think Burr will be okay in an off year where AA turnout is not as high.
Arizona — I think McCain runs again from everything I’m reading. If not, look for Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters to have a strong candidate vs. Napolitano.
Iowa — Nussle will run for the Senate as Grassley will probably retire.
Kentucky — the homerun pick if Bunning gets out would be Elaine Chao, but I doubt that she’d do it to avoid a husband-wife combination in the Senate from Kentucky. I think she’d win though.
Pennsylvania — Rendell is running so Specter could have issues and will likely draw another primary. I wish he’d get out of the way so the former governor Mark Schweiker could run — though he could potentially be a great gov candidate (he would have beaten Rendell in 2002).
Utah — Look for Mike Leavitt to run if Bennett retires.
Missouri — I think Kit will be fine in an off year where Obama will have issues.
NH — Gregg may have a tough race, but I think will be fine unlike Sununu.
Basically, I think we can hold the fort but PA and AZ will be tough, as will FL if MM opts to run again. MO, NH, NC, IA, and KY will all take some effort — in the last two if Grassley and Bunning get out (even if Bunning doesn’t it will tough).
As for the Dem held seats, I could see a number of GOP pickups here. Top potentials:
1. Arkansas — Mike Huckabee. Does he want to run for president again or be serious and run for the Senate? I think only he could beat Lincoln. Run, Mike, run.
2. California — Arnold. Yeah, not the perfect choice but I think he would TROUNCE Boxer who is not even that popular. Meg Whitman and Condi Rice are also potentials here. Any of the three would make it competitive, though some might wait for 2012 if Feinstein runs for Governor.
3. Connecticut — If Rell runs, she wins. Dodd is probably retiring.
4. Colorado — Elway would have one hell of a shot here, and 2010 could be his best opportunity. Bill Owens is an interesting backup choice.
5. Hawaii — If Inouye retires, then Lingle could make this seat a real good pickup opportunity.
6. Illinois — Someone will have a head start but if we could recruit Ditka or Edgar, we could pick this up. Will be tough either way.
7. Indiana — If Bayh retires, we would probably win this but if he doesn’t, no way.
8. Maryland — If Mikulksi retires, Steele could make this very interesting! Susan Schwab is an interesting thought as well. If not, it’s safe.
9. Nevada — Guinn would win easily here but Krolicki is also an intriguing choice, as is Porter. Guinn is a flaming mod though.
10. New York — Chucky is up and is safe unless we can recruit Rudy. Rudy may also be intrested in governor, however…
11. North Dakota — Dorgan is 68 and will probably retire. If Hoeven runs, it is ours. If not, then Pomeroy could make it interesting though
12. Vermont — If Leahy retires, Douglas could be a pickup. If not, no prayer here.
13. Washington — Murray is a lightweight, but who can we recruit? Rossi? There is a female Congresswoman there who might be interesting, though.
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Owens should be ranked higher on the depth charts then Elway in Colorado.
I would love to see Shadegg or Flake as Senator. It will be interesting to see what happens to McCain.
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I’m back…
I think Flake is more likely to run in Arizona than Mary Peters.
I agree Owens is probably a better candidate than Elway, but Owens has shunned previous overtures to run for the Senate.
Richie Farmer is the Ag Commissioner in Kentucky and a former UK basketball player - he would be strong in Bunning’s place.
For Florida - Mel needs to step aside. The Speaker of the House is a latino who has been considering a primary challenge to Crist. While I loathe Crist, the Speaker (his name escapes me), would be an oustanding Senate candidate.
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A Strickland upset would be a great win, but he hasn’t screwed up enough. Taft is still fresh in the voters minds. We got the low hanging fruit out earlier this year (Marc Dann), but that was a given considering the crap he pulled in his office. I don’t hold high hopes. On a lighter note it’s nice to see a lively GOP chairman of Cuyahoga County again.
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The Florida Speaker of the House is Marco Rubio. He’s a lot like Bobby Jindal- young, telegenic, very conservative, and able to articulate conservative principles successfully. I too hope he challenges Martinez- he’d win.
In Colorado, newly elected Congressman/Ex-Sect. of State/Ex St. Treasurer Mike Coffman would be a good Senate candidate. He’s already won statewide several times.
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WAY too soon to make prognostications about ‘10. We simply don’t know what type of environment we’ll be in. We’ll have to wait until this coming spring to see how the messiah’s first 100 days go as the first impression he leaves on the electorate as a sitting president will likely set the tone for his first two years. Remember when Dems are in power and screw up they not only fall, they fall HARD (1980, 1994). A promising sign for our side would be anything remotely resembling the shakiness of Clinton’s first months in office in ‘93.
But having said that these are races that could be interesting given the right environment and candidates:
AR-LINCOLN– She won by only 56-44 over a third-tier candidate that she outspent 40-1 in ‘04. Huck’s probably not interested in the senate so the only alternative is Rep. John Boozman.
AZ-McCAIN– Sorry but your time is up. Why would he want to stick around for another 6 years anyway? Shadegg is the optimal replacement.
CA-BOXER– Who wouldn’t want to see an arnie-boxer race, just for the sheer theater of it? But Rep. Issa would be an attractive candidate and he can self-finance which is vital in CA and especially against Boxer.
CO-SALAZAR– I for one think this state is due to start coming back our way. But we can blow that in part by nominating Tancredo for either this seat or the governorship. Everyone mentions Owens or Elway, but what about former Rep. McInnis??? He took a pass on the ‘08 race but had senate ambitions during his house career.
CT-DODD– Somehow I just don’t see voters in a state like this holding a lib like Dodd accountable. The only one that could make it remotely interesting would be the just defeated Shays and he said he wasn’t interested, and he’s the only kind of Rep that could win in CT.
DE-SPECIAL ELECTION– BIDEN SEAT
I’m not that keen on the politics of this tiny state but a cursory glance suggests that we don’t have much of a farm team here. Senator Castle? Oh, my day is complete. Didn’t he just have a stroke or something?
FL-MARTINEZ– If Mel doesn’t run again the aforementioned Rubio would be outstanding.
HI-INOUYE– Something tells me the incoming appropriations chairman will be running again every 6 years well into his 100s, same for Akaka. Forget about this one.
IL-?????– Obama seat up in its regular cycle. Obviously much depends on who gets the appointment. If it’s Jesse Jr. with the financing and fundraising
prowess of the civil rights industry (and obviously his daddy)he’ll be tough to beat. And can Republicans win in this state anymore? Are there any left? Rep. Kirk of the North Shore has won by handsome margins in his moderate-to-liberal and affluent suburban establishment Republican district, the type of which, all over the country, moved strongly toward Dems during the 90s because of cultural issues. Maybe he has the right profile.
IN-BAYH– Only interesting if Daniels or Rep. Buyer get in and they might be biding time for a Lugar retirement in ‘12 (or a special election should Dick be named to the Obama cabinet). Pence will take over a prime leadership post in the House so he’ll stay put.
IA-GRASSLEY– Chuck might very well pack it in in which case former Gov. Vilsack (or his wife!) would be formidable. Rep. King or former Rep. Nussle would have the best chance.
KS-BROWNBACK– Kansas hasn’t elected a Dem to the senate since 1932 and won’t in 2010, most especially if Obama is polling poorly. Sebelius would be wise to take a cabinet post.
LA-VITTER– Will Vitter run again? Remember this is the state that elected the roguish Edwin Edwards all those times. Or are Republicans held to a higher standard?
MD-MIKULSKI– The pugnacious Pole from Baltimore might not run again and the best candidate would be Steele.He’d need to start raising money early though against Rep. Van Hollen who’s chaired the DCCC the last couple cycles. If Mikulski runs again forget this one.
NV-REID– This could be the premier BATTLE ROYALE of the upcoming cycle. The just defeated Rep. Porter could make a comeback in the more congenial political atmosphere of an Obama midterm as he’ll have extra incentive to go after Harry now. Of course Gov. Gibbons or former Gov. Guinn are possible.
ND-DORGAN– Obviously Gov. Hoeven is our best shot here whether against “helmet-head” Dorgan or Pomeroy. For God’s sake this state SHOULD have a Republican senator.
PA-SPECTER– Torn about this one. Would prefer Toomey but worried about a divisive primary fight before a matchup with Rendell. Tough call.
WA-MURRAY– Would love to see this bird-brain taken out. It has to be someone from the “wet” side of the Cascades who can self-finance. McGavick just ran in the wrong cycle back in ‘06. Any HINT of an anti-GOP trend nationally is enough to doom our chances in this state. Too bad Jennifer Dunn is dead.
WI-FEINGOLD– Paul Ryan. ‘Nuff said.
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Rell is making like a candidate for something in 2010, and it is an interesting thought that she might vie for Dodd’s open Senate seat. She would face a serious competitor in Richard Blumenthal, if he hasn’t already taken a position in Washington with the Obama Administration or an appointment to the Federal Bench.
If Blumenthal is out of the running, Chris Murphy (CT05) is definitely interested in the Senate, and has shown he has the stones to place his bets and the ability to win.
Rob Simmons is a likely alternative in some people’s minds to run for an open Dodd seat.
Don’t forget that Joe Lieberman, should he be stripped of his Homeland Security gavel as expected, could head for the private sector; raising the possibility of two open Senate seats in contention in 2010.
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Susan Schwab is an interesting choice for Senate in 2010, but she’s also be a great asset as a House recruit.
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AR- Huck. He won’t win 2012 cause of Palin/Jindal/Pawlenty/Crist/Romeny or whoever. He’s better off in the Senate, and could probably take this easily with a good fund raising team.
CA- Aronld would be the only one to make this competitive, and as much as I’d hate it I’d rather see Boxer go down.
CO- Owens could take this no problem. Largest re-election in CO history if I have my facts right.
HI- Lingle. Term limited, better than Inouye. Even if he runs again in a GOP friendly environment we could pick this one up.
IN- If the LT. Governor runs I think she might have a shot. Daniels got 60% in a year where Obama won the state.
NV- We MUST take down Harry Reid. If he’s still majority leader this should be priority #1. Not sure who would be the best candidate though.
NY- Rudy can edge this one, or at least make the DSCC divert lots of cash to NY.
ND- If it’s Hoeven, done deal.
WI- Ryan could make this very interesting, since Russ’ poll numbers have been sub par. (And Ryan’s excellent at fundrasing and articulation the message)
This looks hard, but I think it’s doable with the right division of funds. +9 senate seats could put us around or near the majority.
Has a party ever gained 9 senate seats in one year though?