A couple of weeks ago I went over the gubernatorial races coming up next year.  Here’s a little bit about the Senate.  There are 37 seats up for election.  The Democrats hold 19 of these seats and the Republicans 18.  The Democrats have 16 incumbents seeking reelection while the Republicans have 12.  Nine seats altogether are vacant, three currently held by a Democrat and six currently held by a Republican.

Arkansas (D)

Little attention had been paid to Blanche Lincoln’s reelection bid as nobody considered this seat to be competitive.  That is, until a poll came out showing her approval rating at 36% and in a dead heat with every single unknown Republican considering a challenge to her.  Now it’s on the grid.  Arkansas is a heavily Democratic state, but swings wildly toward the GOP in Presidential elections.  Democrats still dominate the Congressional delegation, though, with only one Republican holding a seat in the U.S. House.

California (D)

Barbara Boxer is the bellowing bimbo of the U.S. Senate.  She seems to prefer showing off her aloofness and elite persona before the public.  She has never been overwhelmingly popular in her state and barely won her first Senate bid, but nonetheless, she has always been reelected with a fair margin.  A Rasmussen poll came out a few months ago showing her ahead of potential Republican challenger, former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, by only four points.  That seemed to rattle the political world a bit, but other polls released since have shown Boxer with a typical double digit lead that you’d expect a Democrat to have in California.  I do think Boxer can be defeated in a perfect storm, but I don’t think it is probable.  Fiorna, however, is probably the most credible Republican candidate to take her on so if Boxer can be beaten next year Fiorina would be the one who can pull it off.

Colorado (D)

This race is very competitive and yet incredibly boring.  Michael Bennet has over $2 million on hand for this race and Colorado has really embraced the Democrats over the past four years, but most folks in Colorado don’t have much of an opinion of Bennet.  He’s really not well known and not all that exciting.  Likewise, most of his potential Republican challengers are just as unknown and have not been overly successful in raising money for this race.  If anything, the whole race is lackluster on both sides and just boring.  I think this race will come down to the national mood of the public towards the two parties.  If it’s a Republican year this is a potential Republican pick up.  If Obama regains his lost popularity then it’s a Democrat hold.  My preferred Republican candidate for this race is Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier.  He possesses a charisma akin to the Dalai Bama himself.

Connecticut (D)

You wouldn’t think that a Connecticut Democrat would be considered the most vulnerable incumbent in an election cycle, but Hell occasionally freezes over.  Chris Dodd is in serious trouble.  His chairmanship of the Banking Committee combined with the revelation that he was fully aware of the actions involved in the AIG “Bonusgate” affair and his special mortgage rate he received from Countrywide have made him a very naughty boy in the eyes of Connecticut voters.  Former Republican Congressman Rob Simmons has consistently polled ahead of Dodd for months now and most of the time by double digits.  Simmons knows how to win in Democratic territory too.  He occupied the most Democrat Congressional district held by a Republican until he was swept out of office by 180 votes in the 2006 Democrat wave.  Unless Dodd is able to pull off some kind of miracle, I think you can stick a fork in him.  This will be a Republican pick up in unlikely territory.

Delaware (D)

Delaware is an open seat next year.  This was Joe Biden’s seat until he became VP.  The Senator appointed to replace him, Ted Kaufman, is not going to seek the seat for himself.  Kaufman is also the most creepy looking person in D.C.  He looks like a John Lithgow doppleganger from an evil parallel universe.  The only potentially competitive candidate the GOP has is Congressman Mike Castle, but it is seemingly looking like Castle is going to retire completely from politics.  In an open seat in a good Republican year with the right candidate, I suppose it’s possible for a Republican pick up, but I’m not holding my breath.

Florida (R)

This race is a battle for the life and death of the Republican Party.  Governor Charlie Crist and former State House Speaker Marco Rubio have been fighting it out in the Republican primary to be the nominee.  Crist, at this point, appears to be the favorite, but I think that is mainly due to his name recognition.  Crist is not an acceptable Republican candidate for Florida.  He is a RINO extraordinaire in a state where we can do so much better.  George LeMieux, Crist’s lackey who he appointed to keep the seat warm after Mel Martinez’s sudden resignation, just came out publicly in support of censuring Congressman Joe Wilson after his liar outburst during Obama’s speech earlier this week.  He supports it despite Nancy Pelosi already stating she has no interest in making a bigger affair over Wilson’s gaffe.  If Crist wins he’ll win the general election hands down.  If Rubio wins the primary it’ll be a tougher fight, but I have every confidence that he would prevail in the end.

Hawaii (D)

I only list this one in case Daniel Inouye decides to retire.  He is 85 years old, but he hasn’t given any indication of giving up politics.  Should he decide not to run again then the seat will become competitive if the Republicans can convince Governor Linda Lingle to run.  Otherwise, there is nothing to see here.  Even in 1994 Inouye was reelected with over 70% of the vote.

Illinois (D)

Republicans should have prayed for Roland Burris to seek the seat next year, but no cigar.  Nevertheless, this race will be competitive.  Congressman Mark Kirk is running against State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias.  They’ve been neck and neck in the polls and probably will be until the end.  It’s not easy for Republicans to win statewide in Illinois, but not impossible either.  Before Barack Obama held this Senate seat, Pete Fitzgerald, a staunch conservative, occupied it.  Kirk is another RINO I have little interest in seeing in the Senate, but he’s all there is.

Kentucky (R)

Republicans were getting rather nervous over the situation in Kentucky with Jim Bunning’s lack of popularity, but fortunately they convinced him to step aside.  The two vying for the Republican nomination are Trey Grayson and Rand Paul.  Grayson is the establishment candidate and Rand Paul is the son of Congressman Ron Paul.  Grayson currently has the edge over the potential Democrats in a head to head match up, while Paul falls slightly behind.  This race is currently a toss up and will be a close one.

Louisiana (R)

David Vitter’s diaper fetish with hookers doesn’t appear to have hurt him all that much.  Blue Dog Charlie Melancon, the lone Democrat in Louisiana’s House delegation has decided to run against Vitter, but Vitter outpolls him by double digits.  I also find it unlikely that Vitter will lose his primary against porn star Stormy Daniels.  Barring another scandal I think Vitter is probably safe.  Louisiana is a weird state and Vitter is a weird guy.  Par for the course.

Massachusetts (D)

The recent death of Chappaquiddick Fats puts this race on the map, but it’s unlikely to change parties.  The good news is, it looks like it will go to someone whose last name isn’t Kennedy.  Several Democrat Congressmen are considering a run.  Republican State Senator Scott Brown has officially declared his candidacy.  Kurt Schilling has noted his consideration for the seat, but based on our research it would seem he’d have to run as an Independent, but he’d probably be the best chance to steal the seat from the Dems.  Andrew Card recently mentioned he was entertaining a run for the seat, but you only need to say “George Bush” and that will kill his prospects.  Massachusetts is hostile territory for Republicans.  They have a good record in gubernatorial races, but nothing else.

Missouri (R)

This race is a toss up, but I lean it slightly towards the Democrats right now.  Carnahan is a household name in Missouri politics and Blunt, well, that’s about as well received as the derogatory synonym for his name.  I think this is another one where the political climate will come into play.  I think Roy Blunt can win if the winds blow in the Republicans’ favor next year, but if I were a betting man I’d put my money on Robin Carnahan as of today.

Nevada (D)

Poor Harry Reid seems to have come down with the Tom Daschle syndrome.  He has become incredibly unpopular and trails both of his potential opponents, including Danny Tarkanian who has never held elected office before.  He has a huge war chest amassed with some estimates putting it in excess of $20 million, but while money is very important, it doesn’t guarantee a win.  There have been plenty of incumbents to go down after outspending their challengers by millions of dollars.  The Democrats aren’t going to let the Senate Majority Leader go down without a fight, but this race is definitely a toss up.

New Hampshire (R)

Judd Gregg is not running for reelection which leaves an opening for the Democrats in a state that has been trending in their favor in recent years.  However, it won’t be a snatch and grab.  Kelly Ayotte has so far proven to be a suitable candidate for the GOP and she has been neck and neck with Congressman Paul Hodes in the polls.  I think this is yet another race that will be decided by the national mood of the electorate.

New York (D)

This is a race that wouldn’t normally be on the radar, but with Hillary moving to Obama’s cabinet there is no elected incumbent running.  Senator Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed by Governor Dave Paterson to fill Clinton’s vacancy.  She seems to be acceptable to the electorate and will probably be elected to her own term, but there is one person that could stop her.  Former Governor George Pataki polls ahead of her, but he has not made any announcement to run.

North Carolina (R)

The Democrats had some good fortune in North Carolina last year.  Obama carried the state by 2/10 of one percent and the Dems picked up a Congressional seat.  So far Richard Burr’s numbers aren’t promising either.  His approval’s are in the 30s and he polls in the low 40s.  The good news is that despite that he leads all of his potential Democrat opponents in those polls, but there are a lot undecideds and historically those voters break for the challenger.  A recent Talking Points Memo illustrated that it’s not that Burr is doing a bad job; he’s just incredibly boring.

Ohio (R)

George Voinovich is retiring leaving another swing state seat up for grabs.  Ohio is a bellweather state.  Bush won it in 2000 and 2004.  Republican Senator Mike DeWine was booted in 2006 during the Democrat wave and Obama won the state in 2008.  The Democrat Secretary of State and Lieutenant Governor are running for the seat and are both strong candidates.  Former Congressman Rob Portman is running on the GOP side and is also proving to be a formidable candidate.  This one can go either way.

Pennsyvlania (D)

And finally we come to Pennsylvania, an interesting story.  Arlen Specter, Democrat turned Republican turned Democrat made his recent switch back to his home party when it became more than apparent that he was going to get toasted in the Republican primary by former Congressman Pat Toomey who almost defeated him the last time.  Specter is still facing a primary challenge by Congressman Joe Sestak on the Democrat side.  Polling shows Specter very much vulnerable to Toomey in the general election though they have been trading leads back and forth.  Interesting to note, however, is that if Toomey does lose to Specter, I can’t help to wonder if it would be due to a self-fulfilling prophecy by his own Republican Party.  The DSCC has created a juvenile ad more or less insulting several of the Republican candidates for Senate next year.  They portray Toomey as the candidate whose own party says he can’t win, but we know better, of course.