House Republicans Choose Rep. John Boehner as Minority Leader. No word yet on other leadership positions. The GOP missed a chance to make real change.

The House race in Arizona for a seat left open by retiring moderate GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe (news, bio, voting record) also has drawn national money and interest. Eleven major-party candidates for the seat that stretches from Tucson to the Mexican border were entered in the party primaries.

National GOP leaders angered Republican candidates when they jumped into the race to support state Rep. Steve Huffman, a moderate who in a recent poll was trailing a former state lawmaker, Randy Graf.

Party officials have expressed concerns Graf may be too conservative to win the seat in November.

Yahoo! News

I know very well what it is like to have the national party interfere with local elections. See Toomey vs. Specter, 2004. Like they did in Pennsylvania two years ago, they are trying to do what they can to scare voters into thinking they need a moderate (which is code word for Democrat Lite) in order to win the seat rather than select a truly principled Republican. I can almost understand that logic in Rhode Island, but in a fairly right wing state like Arizona it’s just bunk.

Good luck to Randy Graf today. Tom Tancredo is behind him and that is all I need to know.

Having trailed Jeff Crank since the last update, Doug Lamborn holds a narrow lead of 14,020 votes to Crank’s 12,845 in the Colorado 05 open Republican Primary.

414 out of 424 precincts reporting.

Did the Club for Growth endorse Lamborn? I don’t see anything on the Club’s Web site.

The other four GOP challengers have 48.5% of the vote so far.

UPDATE:

With all precints but one reporting, Crank almost beat Lamborn. Lamborn’s total holds at 14,997 compared to Crank’s 14,076. Lamborn squeaks by with just 27% of the vote.

More fall out from Abramoff.

U.S. Rep. Bob Ney, under scrutiny in a corruption scandal involving convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, announced Monday that he will not seek re-election.

Help her out, she’s running a great campaign but needs your help to win.

That’s why it’s good news that the glimmer of a workable compromise surfaced this week, courtesy of Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana, head of the Republican Study Committee, a group of 115 conservative House Republicans. Mr. Pence, proud grandson of an Irish immigrant, says the only bill that can pass in this year’s hothouse environment may have to be one that couples stiffer border enforcement with a no-amnesty guest-worker program.
His proposal (which can be found here) would have the U.S. government contract with gold-standard private employment agencies such as Kelly Services to establish offices called Ellis Island Centers in countries that supply the most illegal alien labor today. The centers would provide an incentive for illegals to leave the country and apply for guest-worker visas in the U.S. that would be granted within a week by matching workers with jobs employers can’t fill with American workers. They would also make criminal and other background checks. Guest workers would be able to apply for citizenship, but they would have to follow current rules with no favoritism over those now waiting legally in line.

“It would encourage illegal aliens to self-deport and come back legally as guest workers,” says Mr. Pence. “They would benefit from no longer living in fear or in the shadows of life and they could return home for visits. And since employers who hired anyone without such a visa would face stiff fines, it would make it increasingly difficult over time for those who weren’t legal guest workers to get jobs.”

This is from the same article speculating Chris Cannon’s soon demise, we hope. Mike Pence has put a bill on the table to handle the illegal immigration. Not surprisingly, his proposal is the best one to come forward that I think could get a majority on board. I have never been opposed to a guest worker program provided that the borders are secured, for real, first, that there is no granting of citizenship involved with the guest worker program, and that the jobs are only going to guest workers when Americans can not or will not fill the jobs.

It’s also interesting to note that the tide may be changing with the Republicans’ ass kissing of illegal aliens. If Chris Cannon goes down then there is no doubt the GOP will change its tune and suddenly begin listening to the American peoples’ wishes of not giving any type of amnesty to the people who have shown no respect for our laws. Some of them are already seeing the light.

That Mr. Cannon is now an underdog in a Congressional district where the new Dan Jones poll still shows President Bush enjoying a 65% approval rating is a sign that the politics of immigration are changing. Here are other signs:

• Rep. Tom Osborne, the legendary University of Nebraska football coach, who lost a GOP primary for governor this month, says he was defeated in part because he backed a bill that made children of illegal immigrants eligible for in-state tuition rates at Nebraska colleges. “I don’t think [voters] really understood” his position, he told the Associated Press.

• Rep. Chris Shays, a leading GOP moderate from Connecticut, told me his recent town-hall meetings in his upper-income district have convinced him he must oppose citizenship for illegal aliens.

• Of the 17 House Democrats who face the toughest races this fall, 13 voted for the get-tough bill passed by the House last December. And some of the 17 Republicans who voted against the enforcement-only House bill are having second thoughts. Rep. Mark Souder, who saw his vote percentage drop about 10 points against the same hapless challenger he faced in the 2004 primary, says, “there is a pot boiling out there. We’ve got to secure the border first.”

• Even Sen. John McCain, one of the main backers of a comprehensive immigration solution, made a bow to the passions behind the immigration issue when he addressed the same GOP convention in Utah that rebuffed Rep. Cannon. “The present system is broke. It’s a failed federal policy,” he told the GOP delegates. “We need a comprehensive approach, but first we have to fix our borders.”

Wow. Shays must have really taken a beating for that RINO to change his tune. If people in Connecticut are P.O.’d about this then you know that the American people are really serious here and aren’t going to take any pandering, lieing, and double speak from sleazy politicians like John McCain.

Timing is everything in politics. Late next month, just as the conference committee that will decide the fate of an immigration bill gets down to business, a GOP primary for a Utah House seat in the country’s most conservative congressional district may set the boundaries for any legislation that has a chance of passing both the House and Senate.

Illegal immigration is the key issue in the race, and should five-term incumbent Rep. Chris Cannon of Provo lose to a restrictionist challenger, look for House Republicans to dig in their heels and block any bill that creates a path to citizenship for illegal aliens.

“House Republicans are already spooked about immigration, and should one of our own lose on the issue, you will see panic break out,” one GOP congressman told me. At the same time, several GOP pollsters, led by Whit Ayres, say their surveys show it is vital that Republicans pass some immigration bill this year to prove they can govern.

It looks as though we might finally be rid of Chris Cannon. He has been a parriah for a long time with his pro illegal immigration views. Being in such a conservative district, we can easily do better than him. His challenger, John Jacob, won the GOP State Convention poll 52% to 48%, but Utah law requires 60% in order to avoid a primary election. If the sentiment of the people is that of the Utah Republican State Committee then Mr. Jacob is in for a good election night celebration.

I don’t know much about Mr. Jacob, but from what I have read he appears to be a good conservative. What I really like about him is a statement he made during his campaign in the context that hiring illegal immigrants is creating a sub culture that is little different from slavery. I am in full agreement with his thoughts as I hold this belief as well.

Shaun Kenney points us to a Time article that is racing around the net and reveals that Tom DeLay is stepping down. DeLay did some good things, but it certainly seemed like his time had passed. Good for him to step down now instead of hang on too long. He’s also giving up Texas residency to live in Virginia. (Welcome!)

So what will he do in the meantime? If you believe Time, its not becoming a lobbyist (the folly of too many Hill politicians.) Instead he will “pursue an aggressive speaking and organizing campaign aimed at promoting foster care, Republican candidates and a closer connection between religion and government.”

Although the Texas GOP will be allowed to select the replacement candidate, I would point out that there is already one conservative candidate with experience winning congressional elections in the race.

UPDATE: I tracked down the interview that Time did. Here’s the link. One of the interesting things was finding a local angle in DeLay’s Christianity…

TIME: When did you accept Jesus as your Lord and savior, and how does that affect your daily life?

DeLay: I was baptized when I was 12 and immediately walked away from him. (Laughs) And did not walk with him until I got in Congress. When I was elected to Congress, I was a self-centered jerk. Representative Frank Wolf, a Republican of Virginia, had a ministry. He would go to door to door to each freshman. He’d come in and talk to you and invite you to a Bible study and show you a James Dobson video called, “Where’s Daddy?” And every bad thing that he was talking about was me. And it really got my attention and it had a profound impact on me, made me really look at who I was and what I was doing. I started going to that Bible study. That’s when I came back to Christ, and have been with him ever since. That was 22 years ago. And I’ve been maturing ever since.

Frank Wolf is a Northern Virginia rep, and one of those few genuinely good people you meet in the higher levels of politics. I wish I could claim him as my rep, but I’m proud to claim him as a Virginian.

Here

10:54 - DeLay with 21/216 precincts is up by 6,000-odd votes
Ciro Rodriguez (lib) is up against conservative D, Cuellar, by 4,000 votes with 159/256 precinct in BUT 0/30 precincts counted in Webb County, Cuellar’s base

11:07 -
Cuellar Morales Rodriguez
7939 1544 12495 21978
36.12% 7.03% 56.85%

DeLay Cambell Baig Fjetland
10005 4049 591 918 15563
64.29% 26.02% 3.80% 5.90%

11:12 -
Cuellar Morales Rodriguez
8127 1596 13216 22939
35.43% 6.96% 57.61%

DeLay Cambell Baig Fjetland
10005 4049 591 918 15563
64.29% 26.02% 3.80% 5.90%

Still no precincts from Webb reporting, I am going to see how many votes usually come out of there. Keep in mind there are runoffs in Texas so to avoid elimination a candidate need only keep the front runner under 50%. Though from my understanding of the Cuellar race most of the Morales votes would break to Rodriguez so to win he likely needs to do it tonight.

11:17 - Analysis in 2004, nearly 48,000 votes were cast in the Cuellar-Rodriguez race so there are still a lot of votes to be cast.

2004 Webb Co Results
U. S. Representative District 28
Henry Cuellar DEM 12,894 84.13%
Ciro D. Rodriguez DEM 2,431 15.86%
———–
Race Total 15,325

Nearly 14,000 votes likely to come out of Webb breaking heavily for Cuellar means that likely this race will go long into the night.

11:22
Cuellar Morales Rodriguez
8542 1685 14557 24784
34.47% 6.80% 58.74%

DeLay Cambell Baig Fjetland
11323 4456 638 971 17388
65.12% 25.63% 3.67% 5.58%

About half the votes are likely processed in the Cuellar race.

Bexar Co 2004
U. S. Representative District 28
Henry Cuellar DEM 2,737 20.18%
Ciro D. Rodriguez DEM 10,824 79.81%
———–
Race Total 13,561

Bexar Co 2006
U. S. Representative District 28
Henry Cuellar - Incumbent 1,395 20.85% 2,742 20.29%
Victor Morales 385 5.75% 706 5.22%
Ciro D. Rodriguez 4,910 73.39% 10,065 74.48%
———– ———–
Total Votes Cast 6,690 13,513
Precincts Reported 96 of 102 Precincts 94.12%
Its interesting to note the turnout is only barely higher in Bexar Co in 2006 as opposed to 2004 and Cuellar is actually doing a tenth of a point better. This means that Webb Co if it holds to its path of 2004 will yield a likely Cuellar victory but its going to be a squeaker

11:49 - Daily Kos, one of the lead orgs for Ciro are reporting things are begining to look bleak for Ciro. A Kossack did a 2004 v 2006 breakdown of what has been reported so far and shows that Cuellar is either doing the same or better in ‘06 as in ‘04 pretty much across the board. Good news for us not in looney lefty land, but I can say from my campaign expierence even if you know you have a lot of votes out still its always nerveracking to be down in the vote counts.

11:54 - Early vote returns in for Webb County and Cuellar is recieving 86.8% of the vote. If this number holds across the board in Webb then this election is over.

11:58 -
Cuellar Morales Rodriguez
16705 2145 15408 34258
48.76% 6.26% 44.98%

DeLay Cambell Baig Fjetland
12707 5118 1031 971 19827
64.09% 25.81% 5.20% 4.90%

12:08 - Daily Kos & Red State have more or less both called this race for Cuellar, I am not that ready to jump the gun but it does look good. What is Kos now? Like 0-1000? LoL

12:52 -
Cuellar Morales Rodriguez
17142 2232 15986 35360
48.48% 6.31% 45.21%

Cuellar will win this round but he needs to pick up 1.5% to get over 50% to avoid a runoff.

1:20AM - Going to bed, but with 84% of the vote Cuellar has 48.2% of the vote, hard to know if he’ll pick up the votes he needs to get to 50%+1, also the voting anomalies in Webb County will probably be quite contentious. I expect there will be a runoff, hard to tell who will win such a runoff though. My gut is on Cuellar but never know.

The Hill reports that Rep. Bob Ney (R-Ohio) will face a primary challenge from financial analyst James Brodbelt Harris. Ney represents a very conservative district, but has already been targeted by four Democrats who are vying for the nomination to challenge him in the general. Some of the party establishment has scolded Harris for challenging Ney and have encouraged him to stand behind Ney for the good of the party. What I would like to ask is, why does Ney not step aside for the good of the party

Politics1:

CONGRESS. Respected pundit Charlie Cook of National Journal is seeing a very different political environment today as versus a year ago. Then, Cook wrote that Democratic odds of recapturing the US House appeared near impossible. Today, he now believes “the possibility of a Democratic takeover — although less than 50-50 — is very real … Even though House Democrats need a net gain of only 15 seats this November, that task is fairly daunting because the playing field is so small … Nevertheless, the Democrats do have a real shot at ending the GOP’s control of the House … The current model predicts a net Democratic gain of 10 seats. When we factor in a four-seat margin of error, the model projects that as of today, under current conditions, and without speculating about what the national political environment may do between now and November, Democrats will make a net gain of six to 14 seats. With a bit of luck — or a wave of any size — Democrats might even grasp their gold ring: 15 seats.”

Smell what the ‘94 redux is cooking?

Today, Reps. Jeff Flake (Ariz.) and Charles Bass (NH) officially endorsed Rep. John Shadegg for House Majority Leader. CNN has the story. Though Flake was already in the bag, having these two declare endorsement together is significant considering that Flake is conservative while Bass is moderate, and these are the same two legislators who pushed for new leadership elections earlier this month.

Concerning Rep. Blunt’s attempt to claim victory:

“The numbers don’t add up,” Flake said. “This is very much still a contested race. Anybody who goes into a situation with a secret ballot, who claims to have it wrapped up, ought to hear footsteps.”

Seems to me that those footsteps are getting louder. John Boehner, of course, couldn’t help but attempt to direct some of their thunder to his own camp:

Boehner said he agrees with Bass and Flake that the contest should focus on reform.

“As a legislator who has never asked for a single pork-barrel project for his congressional district, I look forward to working with them as majority leader on earmark and budget reforms so we can change the way Congress does business,” Boehner said.

Though Boehner may have more public endorsements than Shadegg, his comments seem more and more desperate as Shadegg bags key legislators’ endorsements. He is tripping over himself trying to constantly be supportive of Shadegg’s entrance into the race, yet at the same time attempts to (nervously) promote himself. Could he drop out and endorse Shadegg? Some of his comments, plus the increasing momentum that Shadegg is gathering that Boehner lacks, seem to indicate that possibility.

Remember to call your representatives.

H/T Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire:

Blunt Could Face Serious Challenge from Nixon
If Missouri Gov. Matt Blunt (R) were up for election today, a St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll “indicates he’d be in danger of being replaced by his announced Democratic rival, Attorney General Jay Nixon.”

“The poll showed Nixon with an eight-percentage-point edge over Blunt - 51 percent to 43 percent - which was just outside the margin of error rate of 3.5 percentage points for each number. But a sampling of those who backed Nixon indicated that his support hinged largely on dissatisfaction with Blunt.”

Politics1:

HOUSE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP. Despite last weekend’s claim by House Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO) that he already has pledges for more than the 117 votes needed to win the race for House Majority Leader, rival candidate Congressman John Shadegg (R-AZ) is starting to gain some impressive endorsements this week. House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI) and House Republican Study Conference Chair Mike Pence (R-IN) endorsed Shadegg, as did some of the rising “Young Turks” in the GOP caucus. They seem drawn to Shadegg as an uncompromising Club for Growth-style voice for fiscal conservatism. Shadegg is counting on the secret ballot to enable him to win an upset victory over frontrunners Blunt and Congressman John Boehner (R-OH). No real gains this week touted by the Boehner camp.

From The Hotline, this is the best summary I’ve found so far about how DeLay and the establishment are in no way fiscally conservative and how Shadegg could be the real deal.

Leader Shadegg?

Do House Republicans really want Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) to be their Leader?

((Update: Shadegg acquired the endorsement tonight of Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, the powerful chairman of the Judiciary Committee.))

We ask because even before he threw his hat in the ring last Friday, the ex-RSC chairman has received largely glowing press coverage. Well, besides that “Jack In The Box” story about how he received some Abramoff-connected money and used the black-hatted lobbyist’s MCI Center skybox for a few events.

But besides that little hiccup, Shadegg’s candidacy has been covered in an overwhelmingly positive light. And not just in the sympathetic conservative media and blogosphere. The Shadegg narrative in nearly all media accounts is: principled conservative and ‘94 Revolutionary who has not yielded to the temptations of the Beltway.

We don’t suggest that this portrayal is inaccurate. In the context of the job he seeks, though, it is incomplete. Shadegg is a principled fiscal conservative — and that has ramifications.

As conservative-sounding as he was, Tom DeLay was no fiscal True Believer. As jarring as that may sound to the conservatives who love(d) him and the Dems who loathe(d) him, it is borne out in the facts. DeLay did not come to town in ‘94, he came in ‘84. And in his second term, he won a seat on the Appropriations Cmte. Yeah, that Appropriations Cmte. The one that doles out the earmarks. The third party in American politics.

By the time he became Whip after the ‘94 elections, DeLay had enjoyed four terms on the spending cmte, getting his fair share for suburban Houston and, after gaining a position on the subcmte overseeing NASA funding, more than his fair share for one of his district’s top employers — the Johnson Space Center. In short, DeLay was no prude when it comes to spending.

Nor was he anything but a pragmatist when, after ascending to the leadership, his members would seek out his help in securing their own earmarks. After all, he had been elected to the Texas legislature in the ’70s and the House in the ’80s; decades when Texas Republicans did not coast to office, but had to challenge a Democratic establishment to win and deliver the goods to stay. He knew what those oversized checks and ribbon cuttings meant politically back home.

Shadegg has lived a more chaste political life. He has also enjoyed easy re-election campaigns in his wealthy suburban Phoenix district. The two may not be unrelated.

Having won a GOP seat in a GOP year, Shadegg has never had to hustle for earmarks. So when he carped about excessive spending on the Republican watch, he did so as one untainted by the fiscal profligacy he denounced. And when he voted against the Republican-authored prescription drug bill in ‘03, he did so knowing that his Sunbelt (read senior citizen-heavy) constituents would still send him back with 80% of the vote — as they did the next year.

Has running in a safe district made Shadegg’s fiscal purity easier? Yes. Are we implying that he would not hold fast to these principles were he in a more competitive district? Not at all.

The point, however, is this: should House Republicans elect Shadegg as their leader they will have somebody who may do more than make noises about curbing earmarks and cutting spending.

Fiscal austerity sounds great on paper in the winter and perhaps never more so than now, after the past few months’ unpleasantness. But when the approps checks are being written this fall, do Republicans really want to endanger their earmarking prerogatives?

Moreover, do they want as their second-ranking leader a committed fiscal conservative who may sound pre-George W. Bush tones about the existence of entities such as, say, the Dept of Education?

How Shadegg fairs in the days and weeks ahead will be a good indication of just how much the Conference wants to change its ways.

Pence has endorsed Shadegg! Text of Pence’s letter below:

January 19, 2006

Dear RSC Colleague:

Two weeks from today, the Republican Congress will face a choice of enormous significance in the life of our nation and our majority. As chairman of the Republican Study Committee, it is always my goal to take action, with deliberation, in the best interests of our members and the conservative movement.

Out of respect for the fact that members of RSC would be supporting a variety of candidates, I had intended to withhold any endorsement in the race for Majority Leader. But given the addition of a prominent RSC member to the field and given that many members have already expressed a preference, it has become clear to me that an earlier, personal endorsement is now appropriate.

My choice is John Shadegg. While I see Roy Blunt and John Boehner as conservative men with honorable records of service in Congress, I am proud to endorse John Shadegg for Majority Leader of the United States House of Representatives.

John Shadegg is a proven conservative leader in Congress. During his years as chairman of the Republican Study Committee and the House Policy Committee, John Shadegg has demonstrated a passion for the conservative agenda and a heart to build bridges between the diverse members of our Republican conference.

John Shadegg is a son of the Republican revolution, a member of the fabled class of 1994, and a leader who has never lost his zeal for reform. John Shadegg knows what fiscal and moral reforms are necessary to restore public confidence in the integrity of our national legislature. Now, more than ever, we need leadership with the energy and vision to steer this Congress back to our roots of fiscal discipline, limited government and traditional values.

John Shadegg is the right man with the right agenda to lead our majority during the challenging days that lie ahead. I humbly urge all my colleagues to support John Shadegg of Arizona as our next Majority Leader.

Sincerely,
Mike Pence
Chairman
Republican Study Committee

H/T to RedState

From Politics1:

CONGRESSIONAL RACES. In TEXAS, a Houston Chronicle/Rice University poll released Saturday shows Congressman Tom DeLay (R) badly trailing in his race for re-election. According to the poll, former Congressman Nick Lampson (D) is at 30%, DeLay is at 22%, and arch-conservative former Congressman Steve Stockman (Independent) is at 11%. Even more troubling for DeLay, half of all voters who said they supported DeLay in 2004 said they were uncertain they would vote for him this year. DeLay’s numbers were even weak among likely Republican primary voters: 10% back one of DeLay’s opponents and 40% said they were still undecided

UPDATE: Go to out page dedication this issue for information and rundowns on the three canidates.
Welcome to the fight! We all owe our due and such I am asking every Save The GOP to man the guns by calling their cognressfolks. The time has come for all of us conservatives to open up on these guys. Below is a list of GOP Congresscriters. Please call away! This is very important for the conservative movement.
(H/T Thinking Things Through)

Click on more… for the numbers.
(more…)

HOUSTON - U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay, who lost his leadership post because of his ties to a disgraced lobbyist and faces felony charges in his home state, now has another worry: an unprecedented four-way primary for the seat he’s held comfortably for 22 years.

While two of DeLay’s challengers in the March 7 primary aren’t considered to have much credibility — one is making his fourth attempt to unseat DeLay and the other has lived overseas much of her adult life — lawyer Tom Campbell of Sugar Land holds an impressive Republican resume.

Campbell worked on the presidential campaigns of Bob Dole and the elder George Bush, whose administration appointed him general counsel to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A former Harris County Republican Party official runs Campbell’s campaign.

I have never heard of this Tom Campbell guy before so I don’t know exactly what kind of Republican he is. I have mixed feelings about DeLay. He was the one that left the Medicare bill open long enough to twist enough arms and push it through. It was also DeLay that made the ridiculous statement last year that they had cut all the spending they possibly could. (I still can’t believe he made that claim with a straight face) Additionally, I do believe DeLay is probably guilty of some kind of illegal doings arising from the allogations that have been made against him, but I reserve my judgment until he has his day in court.

The bottom line, DeLay has become a black eye on the GOP. It might do us good to lose him. On the other hand, if it is at the expense of someone “moderate” is it the right thing to do even it may be the ethical thing?