I wrote this as part of a series for my friend Karol at AlarmingNews.com. Reprinted here in full:

I was a Fred guy in the primaries. I worked for the Fred Thompson campaign before there was a Fred Thompson campaign. I flew down to Atlanta on my own money to help run a Draft Fred effort at the Georgia GOP Convention last May, and then moved to DC to volunteer for the campaign full time for more than a month before they finally put me on payroll. I spent last fall and winter in South Carolina running the ground game in much of the state.

I believed that Fred was the answer to the vacuum of leadership in the conservative movement. I felt, like many did, that his entry into the Presidential race and surge to the top of the polls were meant to be. He was, and is, a great leader, and a solid conservative.

When Fred lost, I was devastated. Not that I didn’t see it coming, but even when in late December it became apparent that there was almost no way we could win, I still held out a shred of hope that things could somehow turn around. Part of that was probably that I needed to to keep doing 80 hour workweeks.

But even before it was over, I knew that once Fred was out McCain was my man.

If you had told me four years ago that in 2008 I would be enthusiastically supporting McCain for President to the point that I cut a check to his campaign, I would have told you you were crazy. But I have come to believe that he is the answer to the Republican party’s current doldrums.

McCain has been at the forefront, in many ways, of the fight to return the GOP to the core principles it has swayed from. He’s been out in front on curbing earmarks, he’s been a leader on entitlement reform and budget balancing. He voted against the 2003 prescription drug bill. He is the single most responsible person in Washington for garnering the political support to turn things around in Iraq.

And of course, he is an American hero. I challenge any Republican to watch his “Man in the Arena” ad and not be proud to have this man as the standard bearer for our party.

Now, I don’t agree with him on a lot of things. But I know where those differences lie. I’m not voting for him because I think he’ll be a down-the-line conservative. I’m voting for him because I know where he stands and what he believes in, and I’m comfortable with our differences of opinion. There are others who could have been the Republican nominee whom I could not say the same for.

Granted, my decision also has to do with my intense dislike of Barack Obama and his policies, and my belief that Bob Barr is simply not a credible alternative. But the bottom line is that John McCain is a great man, and I believe he has it in him to be a great President.

He’s going to be debating John Edwards at a manufacturing association event on June 18.

Disclaimer: I was a paid employee with Friends of Fred Thompson

In the last week, after Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani fell in the early primaries, the conservative blogosphere has been in an uproar over John McCain as the probable GOP presidential nominee. Conservatives have been pushed to unite behind a candidate in order to defeat him. Claims that conservatives will “stay home” for the general election with McCain as the nominee have been rampant.

Now, I have serious misgivings about him as the Republican nominee, as do many conservatives. But we could do far worse. And more to the point, its too little, too late. History will record that in this primary election conservatives failed to rally around the candidate that best represented their values, in favor of others who were flashier or more willing to play the media game that our nominating process has become.

Senator Fred Thompson is not perfect, but he ran the campaign that conservatives claimed they wanted. A campaign based around conservative core principles, limited government, returning our party to the ideals of 1994. And for whatever reason, voters rejected it.

And now I hear griping from various corners of the blogosphere about John McCain as our probable nominee. Complaints that our party will be demoralized with him at the helm, that conservatives will stay home, that we will continue to stray further from our principles.

They may be right, and they may be wrong. But more to the point: a lot of those doing the griping were the same people who spent the last year playing armchair quarterback on presidential campaign strategy, particularly with regards to the Thompson campaign. Our campaign had many flaws to be sure, but its loss of momentum and eventual demise was certainly aided by the constant harping on its management and strategy by right-of-center bloggers.

For a normal campaign, this might not have had a major impact. But for the Fred Thompson campaign, which was jump started largely by conservative bloggers’ early praise of his potential candidacy, it did serious damage. His campaign was launched with the unspoken promise that conservative bloggers would rally around it, and instead they began tearing him apart on the web from the moment he announced.

Conservatives wonder why our side of the blogosphere has so little success influencing elections when compared to the massive fundraising and organizational power of the lefty-netroots. The reason is this. Their side is full of activists, ours full of pundits. We had an opportunity to use our influence to push a great conservative candidate toward the nomination. And we blew it.

So for everyone complaining about McCain as the nominee, go back and check your blog archives and see how many posts you wrote about how the Thompson campaign was failing to live up to expectations, or how its fundraising numbers were too low or its media strategy unsound. And hopefully you’ll learn a lesson for the next time around.

With Senator Fred Thompson out of the presidential race, I prefer John McCain among the remaining Republican candidates. While I think he’s wrong on a whole host of issues, Senator McCain’s leadership on the Iraq war has been the type of steadfast courage that this country needs in a president. Also, from having worked against each of the Republican presidential campaigns, McCain’s has been the most ethical among them.

However, when I filled out my absentee ballot earlier this week, I voted for Fred and all his delegates. I chose my candidate, and I worked my heart out for him. And in November, if McCain is the nominee I’ll vote for him. But when I do I’ll be more than a bit sad thinking about what might have been. And hopefully, we’ll all have learned from our mistake when it next comes time to choose a President.

Thompson withdrew from the presidential race last week. He ended his campaign as he had conducted it, with a minimum of fuss and no wasted words. He released a withdrawal statement over the Internet. It was three sentences long, and he hasn’t been heard from since. My guess is we’ll be missing him dreadfully by spring.

The charge against Thompson, who entered the campaign last September when polls showed him a favorite among Republican voters, was repeated so often it became a cliché. Like most clichés it tells us more about the people who used it than about the state of affairs it was supposed to describe. His campaign lacked “energy.” He didn’t get out enough on the campaign trail, and, when he did, he didn’t hold enough events. His speaking style was too low-key, and his speeches were too long, and more often than not his “performance” in televised debates was lackluster. He just didn’t have the fire in the belly.

The Weekly Standard

That was precisely the problem.  We live in a flashy Hollywood society today and ironically Thompson didn’t fit the bill.  With the exception of the final Republican debate in Myrtle Beach prior to the South Carolina primary, there was no fire with Thompson, no fury, no spirit.  There were a lot of good ideas and lot of the right stuff to reign in the conservative base, but it wasn’t presented in palatable format.

This is the key difference between someone like Fred and someone like Barack Obama.  Obama has no ideas, no plans, no details, no nothing, but he’s an eloquent speaker and knows how to liven up the party.  Look how many people are gravitating towards that guy.  Thompson was more straight forward and not really the lively type so I think people just didn’t pay attention.

It shouldn’t be that way, but such is the world we live in today.  If you can’t catch the attention span of the American Idol crowd you’re just wasting your time.

My work on the Fred Thompson campaign concluded today. So I am back to blogging.

I will probably have a lot to blog about in the coming weeks. For now, here are my first thoughts.

Told you so:

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson quit the Republican presidential race on Tuesday, after a string of poor finishes in early primary and caucus states.

“Today, I have withdrawn my candidacy for president of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort,” Thompson said in a statement.

The AP

As RedState puts it, “The Craptacular Capitulation of a Lame Duck.”

WASHINGTON — President Bush is unlikely to defy Congress on spending billions of dollars earmarked for pet projects, but he will probably insist that lawmakers provide more justification for such earmarks in the future, administration officials said Monday. (story here)

Translation: “Don’t do it again! But I’m going to let you do it just this once…” (Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle snicker with glee)

Fiscal conservatives in Congress and budget watchdogs have been urging Mr. Bush to issue an executive order instructing agencies to disregard the many earmarks listed just in committee reports, not in the text of legislation.

More than 90 percent of earmarks are specified that way, not actually included in the texts. White House officials say such earmarks are not legally binding on the president.

Emphasis mine. The next logical step for a real conservative President would be to gut these non-binding earmarks, right? Well, yeah, but Bush isn’t exactly a conservative President.

Congressional leaders of both parties, who are scheduled to meet on Tuesday with the president, said Mr. Bush would provoke a huge outcry on Capitol Hill if he ignored those earmarks.

Waaaaah! We want our pork and we want it now!

Lawmakers, including the House Republican whip, Roy Blunt of Missouri, have cautioned the White House that a furor over earmarks could upend Mr. Bush’s hopes for cooperation with Congress on other issues, including efforts to revive the economy.

Moreover, Republicans shudder at the possibility that a Democratic president might reject all their earmarks.

Again, all emphases are mine. Heaven forbid a Democratic president striking favors earmarks from a bill! Why? Well, because there’s an “R” next to that legislator’s name!

So it goes. Fiscal conservatism, who needs it?

Fred Thompson was the ONLY candidate (well, serious candidate, Ron Paul did as well) to say outright that he would issue the executive order against these “air-dropped” earmarks.

Ridiculousness like this is why people like me aren’t taking the “but you’ll let Hillary win!!” line when it comes to the “Republican” candidates.

What’s the difference, honestly?

Sen. McCain will interfere in the market (and give taxpayer dollars to people who lose manufacturing jobs - so why would they look for another one?), be against tax reform, embrace Al Gore’s Global Warming Government Expansionist argument, and appoint judges who will side with him on McCain-Feingold - meaning not judges like Alito, Scalia, Roberts, and Thomas. He’ll close Guantanamo Bay and argue that intense interrogation of terrorists to save American lives is actually “torture.” Not to mention, he has a temper and a vindictiveness similar to that of the Clintons.

Gov. Romney still supports the federal “assault weapons” ban. He’s an advocate of government mandates for healthcare (see RomneyCare). He recently said he was disappointed that there wasn’t a federal program to help Detroit automakers, and basically pledged to spend billions of taxpayer dollars to “save” Detroit if he becomes President. Michigan voted for him, so they will expect results. He’s a friend of Ted Kennedy. I haven’t even touched his convenient “conversion” to social conservatism - he turns me off enough today with stuff he’s saying now, so his “change of heart” is just icing on the cake.

Huckabee? Do I really have to go to the John Edwards wannabe? Yeah, he’ll be a real strong advocate for fiscal conservatism and limited government, let me tell ya! (snark off). Not to mention he’s one of the most immature, unserious candidates on either side of the race.

If we’re going to give this country to statists, by all means do it under the Democratic banner, not the Republican one.

UPDATE: Stop The ACLU has more of this line of thinking, referencing Stephen Bainbridge and even Rush Limbaugh.

UPDATE II: The Club for Growth has more details on the fallout from this move by the Bush Administration, and a round-up of conservative response around the blogosphere and in the media.

UPDATE III: Michelle Malkin has an excellent round-up of McCain’s ridiculous position on illegal immigration, which I failed to mention originally.

The AP and Fox News have both called the race for John McCain. Tonight’s race means several things. Since 1980 the winner of the South Carolina Republican primary has gone on to be the party’s nominee. South Carolina also has more military families than any other state and they seemed to gravitate towards him as well, according to the reporter on Fox News.

Huckabee finished a very close second, but I don’t see where he really goes from here. Florida is next followed by Maine and he won’t win either one of those. He won’t even come close in Maine. That will be a Romney state I am thinking. Florida is up in the air between him, Romney, McCain, and Giuliani and Giuliani has already got the shop up and running in Florida while the others were working South Carolina. Super Tuesday will be a lot of liberal minded states that won’t take to Huckabee either.

Regarding Fred Thompson, I think he will drop out of the race. He has said repeatedly for the past two weeks that he has to do very well in South Carolina and that wasn’t the case tonight. Judging by his speech this evening I got the impression he was giving his supporters and staff a final hoorah. I think we will hear an announcement within the next few days.

Duncan Hunter has officially dropped out of the race.

With 82% in this race is still too close for the media to call, but I think we are looking at a McCain victory.

1. McCain - 33%
2. Huckabee - 29%
3. Thompson - 16%
4. Romney - 15%
5. Paul - 4%
6. Giuliani - 2%
7. Hunter - <1%

With 60% in:

1. McCain - 33%
2. Huckabee - 30%
3. Thompson - 16%
4. Romney - 15%
5. Paul - 4%
6. Giuliani - 2%
7. Hunter - <1%

With 40% in:

1. McCain - 34%
2. Huckabee - 30%
3. Thompson - 15%
4. Romney - 14%
5. Paul - 4%
6. Giuliani - 2%
7. Hunter - <1%

With 27% in:

1. McCain - 35%
2. Huckabee - 28%
3. Thompson - 15%
4. Romney - 15%
5. Paul - 4%
6. Giuliani - 2%
7. Hunter - <1%

With 16% in:

1. McCain - 34%
2. Huckabee - 30%
3. Thompson - 15%
4. Romney - 14%
5. Paul - 4%
6. Giuliani - 2%
7. Hunter - <1%

As predicted Fred came up short. He’s either going to place third or a close fourth, not at all what his campaign was hoping for. I also heard a blip about Duncan Hunter dropping out of the race, but that hasn’t been confirmed yet.

Nevada has a caucus, not a primary.  The delegates to the caucus voted as follows:

1. Romney - 236
2. McCain - 79
3. Paul - 79
4. Thompson - 74
5. Huckabee - 47
6. Hunter - 15
7. Giuliani - 14

Today is South Carolina’s Republican primary and I went and cast my vote about an hour ago.

I have said before that my number one issue in this election is fiscal policy. I believe that our national debt and runaway government spending is the number one threat facing our country right now, more so than terrorism. Because of that issue I have leaned in the direction of Ron Paul all election season. I decided not to go with him today, however. Paul was always a long shot bid, but it began to look like that he might have a shot at pulling it off when the campaign money began rolling in and the media began giving him his due attention. However, his showing in New Hampshire was poor and that was a state that should have been a gold mine for him. It’s clear that after that primary any small chance he may have had was now in the past and I didn’t want to bother casting a vote for someone I know is not going to win at this point.

I then turned to John McCain, again for his fiscal sensibilities. True, he voted against the tax cuts in ‘01 and ‘03, but I feel his reason for doing so was justified. He has a proven track record of reigning in government waste, even in the military sector which Congress seems to give a free pass to on anything they want. McCain has repeatedly stated that he will oppose pork spending and make the authors of those pork barrel bills famous.

Secondly, McCain can win in November and he may be the only one. We are the underdogs in this White House race thanks to George Bush soiling the name of the Republican Party over the past seven years. McCain is well respected by independents and centrist Democrats and he could be capable of rebuilding the now fractured Reagan coalition that gave him a 49 state landslide win in 1984. Furthermore, I could easily see McCain smacking around a Barack Obama in every debate because McCain is experienced and knowledgeable whereas Obama is nothing more than an empty suit that has been created by the American media.

The problem with McCain is that he is still pushing for this guest worker program which I am vehemently opposed to as long as our unemployment rate is anything other than zero. Plus, there is the issue of McCain-Feingold which still gets under my skin. Would McCain appoint a Supreme Court justice who would disagree with him on CFR? Probably not and such a judge that would legitimize CFR is not likely to be a judge we can trust to be a constructionist.

So, I went to the voting booth today and cast my vote for Fred Thompson. In all honesty, I have been disappointed with the organization of Thompson’s campaign. I don’t think anywhere near the appropriate effort has been made to market him and while he did finally come to life in the Myrtle Beach debate last week, I think it was too little too late. That also concerns me as to how he’ll perform for the general election were he to make it that far. I don’t think Thompson is going to win today’s primary. He could pull it off, but I wouldn’t bet my money on it. I decided to help him out though with my vote this morning and maybe we’ll have a surprise tonight. He is the only candidate left that I see eye to eye with enough to support so I am keeping my fingers crossed and I may even head down to Columbia tonight as the results are coming in.

I will certainly support John McCain if he becomes our nominee, but I am much more comfortable with Fred and his Federalist views.

I wanted to write about this last night, but I was freezing my bum off in Green Bay in a hotel with a crappy wireless network that kept disconnecting me. So as everyone knows by now, Romney was the big winner last night and by more than I expected.

1. Romney - 39%
2. McCain - 30%
3. Huckabee - 16%
4. Paul - 6%
5. Thompson - 4%
6. Giuliani - 3%
7. Uncommitted - 2%
8. Hunter - <1%

I kind of figured come late afternoon that Romney would win because I heard on the radio that McCain and Huckabee had already left and headed down to South Carolina. And what the hell is Duncan Hunter still in this race for?

Romney has surged ahead in number of delegates now:

1. Romney - 46
2. Huckabee - 19
3. McCain - 15
4. Thompson - 6
5. Paul - 2
6. Hunter - 1
7. Giuliani - 0

I don’t think Giuliani’s super duper Tuesday strategy is going to work. He is putting himself way in the hole now. I think his time may be done.

The Nevada Caucuses and the first in the south, South Carolina primary are coming up on Saturday.

From Peter Robinson at National Review Online:

Yes, there is real excitement. We arrived at noon outside Russ’s BBQ on The Alley in Aiken, SC. There were close to 200 people… standing outside the restaurant. Approximately 100 managed to squeeze indoors. The crowd outside was very jovial awaiting Fred’s arrival. The local and state police blocked off both ends of the street with lights flashing. About fifteen minutes later, the “Clear Conservative Choice” bus arrived… but down the end of back alley. Quite “by accident”, the crowd shifted. We could tell the good Senator was making a back door entrance. It reminded me like something out of a rock concert, adoring fans trying to catch a glimpse. Within minutes we swarmed this side of the delivery box truck to see Fred make his entrance. He was gracious, taking a few pictures and then stepping out from the front of the truck to wave hello to all before entering Russ’s BBQ.

Sounds like the ground is starting to swell for Thompson in South Carolina.  We have five days left until the primary.  He will have to finish either first or a very close second to stay in the game.

Today, with signs in hand and Fred08 stickers on just about every shirt you saw, this was an event worthy of the next president.

One thing we haven’t really done yet is speculate who the VP running mate might be for each of the candidates. I thought I would strike up that subject and start with my thoughts.

I’ll start with McCain since he has recently become the front runner. I think a very likely choice for John McCain would be Mark Sanford. Sanford is probably the most fiscally restraint governor of all 50 and a McCain/Sanford ticket would send a message that Republicans are serious about fixing the run away spending problems in Washington. They are good friends and Sanford endorsed McCain in 2000. It also doesn’t hurt that Sanford is a southern governor ( proudly my governor!) and his running with McCain might help quell some of the disdain conservatives have with some of McCain’s past shenanigans in the party.

With Romney I used to think that Huckabee might be a probable choice for him being a southern governor, but at this point I don’t think there would be a salvageable relationship between the two of them. I have always viewed Mitt to be the establishment candidate, or the Bush neo-con backed candidate, so based on that I turn to Condi Rice, perhaps?

I could see Giuliani aligning with Huckabee to woo the social conservatives who are aghast at his social liberalism. A Giuliani candidacy is looking less likely at this point though. He is no longer leading in Florida and only leading in New York by three points now over McCain. I don’t think Super Tuesday is going to save him.

Fred Thompson is a hard one. He can’t pick a southerner so he has to go either west or to the north/northeast. Duncan Hunter might be a good fit for him. I had actually suggested a few months ago to a friend of mine who is affiliated with the Thompson campaign that he should consider Spencer Abraham. The Michigan economy is in a shambles. Years of left wing economics have shriveled it away to practically nothing. Combine that with Howard Dean’s boneheaded decision to strip them of their delegates I think that if the GOP worked hard in that state they could deliver it. Having a Michigan running mate wouldn’t hurt the effort.

Then, of course, there is Huckabee and on that one I have no earthly idea.

Now that the “Thompson is lazy” meme has been put to rest after he ferociously campaigned across Iowa and garnered 3rd place even with the Politico hit job on the day of the Caucii, and he has certainly disproved that hit job piece by not dropping out and endorsing Sen. McCain, and he was on fire in the debate last night and today picked up the endorsement of HUMAN EVENTS, some people with their own agenda to fulfill (in this case being John Ellis of RealClearPolitics) still insist that Thompson is just pulling our leg and doesn’t want to run for President:

Fred Thompson can’t be back. He hasn’t been anywhere. He announced his candidacy three months ago and promptly…disappeared. Which raised the question: What in the world does Fred Thompson hope to accomplish with his non-campaign campaign? Put another way, at what point does losing to Ron Paul become too humiliating?

I’m going to interject here with two points: 1) what are you talking about? He’s got 3rd place in Iowa, beating McCain, Giuliani, and despite what you infer, yes Ron Paul. 2) He dissappeared? Really? That’s why he’s been raising plenty of money and has been reaching out to voters constantly and picking up some real endorsements and momentum. Heaven forbid he forego New Hampshire, just like the current President of the United States did.

Happily enough, politics is a dynamic business. Things change. And by the time Fred Thompson arrived on the stage in South Carolina last night, circumstances had conspired to make him useful. His task: take out the preacher man on behalf of his friend Sen. John McCain and on behalf of the national Republican Party. In return, well, let’s just say this: there would be a “quid” for the “quo.”

This is just insulting. Sen. Thompson, the guy who won’t dance to anyone’s tune as he is proud to say, who is brash with ridiculous reporters and doesn’t pander to gain votes, is somehow going to kowtow to the RNC to get rid of big bad Huckabee? You kidding me? At what point do you quit insisting that Thompson’s motives are different from what he keeps insisting? How many times does he have to overcome expectations (Iowa), meet and exceed fundraising goals, gain key endorsements (Steve King, HUMAN EVENTS), and clearly spell out that he thinks he’s the guy to be President before you quit projecting your hopes onto him?

Thompson understood the dynamics perfectly and proceeded to immediately make himself useful. He went after Huckabee as a “liberal” on economic issues and a “liberal” on foreign policy. Heaven forefend. And he did a nice job of skewering Ed Rollins in the process, thus endearing himself further to the Beltway Boyos.

Thompson will never be the Republican presidential nominee, except in some brokered convention fantasy that only Mary Matalin might believe. If he wants to be a player or even (just maybe) the party’s vice presidential nominee, he need only serve as the instrument of Huckabee’s demise. His pointless campaign now has a purpose.

You can put quotation marks around the word liberal all you want, it’s pretty darn clear as day to anybody who pays attention that Huckabee is LIBERAL on economics and doesn’t have a clue (which some would argue is the same as being liberal) on foreign affairs. Sen. Thompson has made it a point not to be told what to do by anybody during this whole race, yet John Ellis for some reason believes that now he’s gotten word from the powers that be in the RNC and has gone along with their ploy to take out Huckabee. Give me a break - he won’t campaign the way you want him to, he’s doing things his own way, and you need to get over it.

Could it be Gov. Mark Sanford?

H/T: Hot Air

UPDATE!Human Events endorses Fred. Sanford would have gone a lot further in SC but a good pickup regardless.

There was a little creaking and cracking heard, a shot of some blown dust and loose cobwebs and shazaam!  We saw an animated Fred Thompson tonight.  He was great.  I think a lot of people have been waiting for this.  I wish he would have came out of the shell a bit earlier, but better late than never.  I hope this debate will help him here in South Carolina.  The latest Rasmussen reports the following:

• McCain - 27%
• Huckabee - 24%
• Romney - 16%
• Thompson - 12%
• Giuliani - 6%
• Paul  - 5%

So what’s next?  Huckabee won the Hawkeye Caucii, Romney took Wyoming, and McCain made his money in New Hampshire.  Romney is leading the pack with 30 delegates, Huckabee with 21, McCain 10, Thompson 6, Ron Paul 2, and Giuliani and Hunter each have 1.  Conventional wisdom says that Romney should win the next primary, Michigan, because he is from there and his dad was the governor back in the 60s.  However, with McCain’s resurgence he could ride in on a white horse and sweep victory off its feet.  He did win the state in 2000.

South Carolina is a must win for Fred Thompson otherwise he is finished in my opinion.  It’s too bad.  The man really does have all the Reaganesque qualities about him, except he’s lacking Reagan’s personality which had the gravitas to pull everyone in.  He is starting an 11 day bus tour throughout the state as what I would suspect is a last ditch effort.  Should he prevail we will be in a really interesting situation coming up, because Florida and Super Tuesday follows.

Huckabee, Romney, McCain, and Thompson all still in the race by February 5th may very well set up a perfect storm for Rudy Giuliani.  He has everything banked on making big wins in Florida and on the states on Super Tuesday when many of the larger liberal states that would go for Giuliani are voting.  Giuliani will most certainly win New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Delaware by large margins, and most likely California as well.  I also think he will have a good showing in Florida the week before.  Since he won’t be facing just one opponent by that point the non-Rudy vote gets diluted and that could set him up very well.  Granted, nobody has ever made it to the White House using this strategy but he is looking to be the first.

Regardless, I don’t think this race will be decided even on February 5th.  We could easily see a scenario where these five candidates all have enough delegates accumulated to keep chuggin along down the line.

Final Score:

1. McCain - 37%
2. Romney - 32%
3. Huckabee - 11%
4. Giuliani - 9%
5. Paul - 8%
6. Thompson - 1%
7. Hunter - <1%

8:12PM - Fox News has just declared John McCain the winner!

8:10PM - With 11% in:

1. McCain - 37%
2. Romney - 28%
3. Huckabee - 12%
4. Giuliani - 9%
5. Paul - 8%
6. Thompson - 1%

7:48PM - Most of the polls in New Hampshire are closing in 15 minutes. I’ll try to keep this post updated with what I find out. Some polls closed at 7:30.

With 9% in:

1. McCain - 37%
2. Romney - 28%
3. Huckabee - 12%

I just wrote a response to an email from my father concerning the FOX News debate, the state of the race right now, and where each candidate goes from here. Without meaning to, I wrote what turned out to be a pretty comprehensive review of the situation, so I’ll put the bulk of the email right here:

Here’s how I thought the candidates did:

1. Mitt - he pushed back against attacks against him pretty well without looking mean (like McCain). He made a fool out of Huckabee by forcing him to acknowledge that he raised taxes in Arkansas by a net of $500,000.

2. Fred - he didn’t get his fair share of speaking time, but when he did he was his same laid back yet knowledgeable self. He schooled Huckabee on Habeus Corpus in the U.S. versus Gitmo, and looked like a law professor chiding a “know-it-all” student. His answer on immigration was great and had substance behind it concerning Mexico, which Mitt completely missed in his immigration opinion. Mitt had more at stake in this debate, since he’s battling McCain for NH and Fred isn’t running in NH at all, so Mitt gets 1st.

3. Rudy - His answers were pretty good, but he is like McCain on immigration. He managed to stay out of the Huck-Mitt-McCain brawl but still got some good material in. He is waiting for Florida to compete so he didn’t really have much to gain or lose in this debate.

4. McCain - he came across as a bully (even more so Saturday night, don’t know if you saw it, but he tempered it Sunday night). His retort to Romney about leading for patriotism rather than profit was a cheap-shot and unnecessary and childish. Patriotism and military service is all well and good, but so is creating jobs and managing a giant company. He is still terrible on immigration and taxes since he voted against both Bush tax cuts. If he loses NH to Romney he’s toast.

5. Huckabee - he came across as ignorant on foreign affairs. He’s clearly the lightweight in this race since all he does is spew populist John Edwards-style rhetoric. He was owned by both Thompson and Romney concerning Guantanamo and taxes respectively.

From here, Mitt has to win NH and if he loses he’s not quite out, but severely damaged after losing 2 states that he poured millions into.

Rudy has to hope that his waiting-til-Florida-and-Super-Tuesday strategy works. For him he wants different candidates to split victories in IA, NH, SC, and MI so that there is still no “frontrunner” when his strong states come into play.

Fred has to win SC or get 2nd within just a few percentage points to be seen as a viable candidate. He has a Southern State strategy so SC is crucial and will determine whether he continues or not.

Huckabee needs to be stopped at all costs. He is terrible on economics (trade policy, taxes, spending, bashing CEO’s and corporations like a Democrat) and I personally really dislike him for blatantly exploiting his religion and having a holier-than-thou attitude while acting innocent. Evangelicals better wake up to realize they are being exploited, not embraced, by Huckabee. Huckabee is alllll about big government.

UPDATE: I realized something I left out and also emailed my father this quick email:

One more thing - if I here the words “Ronald Reagan” (especially from Giuliani, who must have a shrine to Reagan and a requirement to say his name 10 times daily) or “change” one more time I’m going to throw something.